TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

First Blood in Game 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hanwha Life Esportsof Bilibili Gaming, Hanwha Life Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ad1…9198backed Hanwha Life Esports50c615.36$308 inWon+$307.687051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Bilibili Gaming50c292$146 inLost-$14690537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Hanwha Life Esports52c212.8$111 inWon+$101.83050%15 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…e8e1backed Bilibili Gaming50c190$95 inLost-$952330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-39.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming51c175.51$89 inLost-$89.082,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Bilibili Gaming6c170$10 inLost-$10.21145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+162.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Bilibili Gaming44c152.75$67 inLost-$67.2134756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Bilibili Gaming50c110$55 inLost-$5524554.7%134 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inLost-$5012454%67 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Hanwha Life Esports49c95.93$47 inWon+$48.923,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Hanwha Life Esports50c59.99$30 inWon+$3045444.3%201 W · 253 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7687…55f8backed Hanwha Life Esports52c40$21 inWon+$19.22744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Hanwha Life Esports51c30$15 inWon+$14.761746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7401…76ccbacked Bilibili Gaming48c24.71$12 inLost-$11.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.