Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473c95e3096c3afb7bb1e6b1cac459f7715c900a40db50623aa854cca3650b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9e7…56d8backed Under | 60c | 5,438$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.78 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 40c | 3,949$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.9 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Over | 42c | 2,104$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.59 | 387 | 35.9%139 W · 248 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 59c | 1,010$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.19 | 903 | 50.8%459 W · 444 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 38c | 564.17$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Over | 41c | 520.55$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 967 | 49.8%482 W · 485 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 56c | 336.3$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 59c | 265.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 1,502 | 50.3%756 W · 746 L | +71.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 42c | 262.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 1,143 | 38.8%444 W · 699 L | -46.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Under | 59c | 260$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…f9cdbacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 59c | 220.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…ae93backed Under | 62c | 208.68$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -10.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…6ff1backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 574 | 49.7%285 W · 289 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…fcdabacked Over | 39c | 165.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…734fbacked Under | 60c | 127.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 62c | 105.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 612 | 56.2%344 W · 268 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…3024backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…2909backed Over | 39c | 97.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Under | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b36bbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 60c | 45.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…6d30backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 60c | 44.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…bf3fbacked Under | 60c | 33.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…3a68backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…8dedbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…a3d7backed Under | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…83eebacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 3?Hanwha Life Esports won
- First Blood in Game 4?Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.