TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,065 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc11…4b4abacked Under1c1,200$12 inLost-$12250%0 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under6c637.39$39 inLost-$38.8122336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Over45c534.15$240 inWon+$294.151,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Over47c510.73$242 inWon+$268.3269841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Under55c504.43$277 inLost-$277.4442149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Over39c130.02$51 inWon+$79.313,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5323…326abacked Under52c115.38$60 inLost-$608547.1%40 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x046f…85b3backed Under57c104.75$60 inLost-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6af…f9cdbacked Under53c94.53$50 inLost-$505735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7954…678dbacked Under61c73.77$45 inLost-$456771.6%48 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under64c60.3$39 inLost-$38.62,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Over41c59.99$25 inWon+$35.445444.3%201 W · 253 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed Over44c57.18$25 inWon+$32.110545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Over79c50$39 inWon+$10.555747.4%27 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Under55c49.99$27 inLost-$27.3325551.4%131 W · 124 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Under59c45.81$27 inLost-$27.032650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…5fa9backed Under48c41.67$20 inLost-$203652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under54c40$22 inLost-$21.661746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e79…83eebacked Under60c39.92$24 inLost-$247323.3%17 W · 56 L-10.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-56.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb911…d6d0backed Under60c37.27$22 inLost-$22.2324945.8%114 W · 135 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…d13cbacked Under59c33.9$20 inLost-$201060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Over37c31.75$12 inWon+$201,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Under52c30$16 inLost-$15.621945.2%99 W · 120 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc366…e150backed Under60c30$18 inLost-$182931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.