UFC · resolved market

Curtis vs. Kopylov

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e98031c9ebfeb48d63485c2f68515e41c01fa7a282672a413091bd0d0b5f338

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Kopylovof Curtis, Kopylov
Resolved: Jan 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,752 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Curtis	32c	5,000$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.99	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Kopylov	68c	4,503$3,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,443.27	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	63cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Kopylov	67c	4,044$2,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,334.5	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed Kopylov	68c	3,268$2,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045.65	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Curtis	32c	3,237$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.84	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Curtis	33c	3,050$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Curtis	32c	2,000$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.58	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Curtis	1c	1,634$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Kopylov	71c	1,151$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.91	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Kopylov	69c	999.99$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Curtis	31c	795.72$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.87	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Curtis	29c	670.71$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.81	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Curtis	51c	651.67$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.67	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Kopylov	48c	625$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325	140	45.7%64 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Curtis	32c	405.27$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.2	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Curtis	32c	340.24$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.88	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7321…1892backed Kopylov	69c	331.03$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Curtis	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Curtis	32c	310.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Curtis	33c	304$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Curtis	33c	303.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+3.5wins	+0.50per pick	35cpaid	+143.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Curtis	34c	297.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Curtis	29c	269$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.78	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3559…0467backed Kopylov	71c	266.65$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.07	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	66cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Curtis	29c	262.22$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.41	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Kopylov	70c	250$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.5	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5c…5b0fbacked Kopylov	71c	211.13$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.12	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kopylov	69c	205.38$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.66	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked Curtis	29c	200$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Kopylov	68c	173.86$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.63	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1c7a…2da9backed Curtis	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	32cpaid	+91.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Curtis	29c	162$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.45	104	39.4%41 W · 63 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Kopylov	65c	153.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.9	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b2b…e0e6backed Curtis	66c	150.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…db55backed Kopylov	70c	143$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Curtis	31c	126.23$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Kopylov	70c	125$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9b…deddbacked Curtis	31c	124.19$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Curtis	32c	113$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaca…cbdbbacked Kopylov	71c	101.41$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.41	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Kopylov	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-7.4wins	-0.23per pick	54cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Curtis	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Kopylov	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	72cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Kopylov	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Curtis	29c	99.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Kopylov	75c	93.96$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.96	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Curtis	33c	90.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	97	37.1%36 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Curtis	24c	88.42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Curtis	30c	80$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Curtis	31c	73.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…a66abacked Kopylov	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	91	67%61 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Kopylov	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Kopylov	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	71cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ec…3cbabacked Kopylov	71c	72$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b68…795bbacked Curtis	40c	70$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Kopylov	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8d…261abacked Kopylov	69c	50.72$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.72	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Curtis	32c	48.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133c…c399backed Kopylov	73c	46.58$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Kopylov	68c	44.73$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8b5…eb94backed Kopylov	69c	43.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Curtis	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-4.8wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Kopylov	68c	34.38$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e21…eab0backed Kopylov	73c	34.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bb…9799backed Kopylov	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353a…55c0backed Kopylov	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057c…ad12backed Kopylov	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ec4…0638backed Kopylov	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d0b…fd7ebacked Kopylov	69c	24.35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf211…649abacked Kopylov	69c	23.87$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa167…4108backed Kopylov	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	75cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2142…79fdbacked Kopylov	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Kopylov	66c	17.94$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.1	58	67.2%39 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe38…7864backed Kopylov	69c	15.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf202…a89bbacked Kopylov	69c	15.42$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2e…3b1cbacked Kopylov	76c	13.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Curtis vs. Kopylovthis page
Almeida vs. AlhassanAlmeida won
Dern vs. RibasDern won
Ponzinibbio vs. HarrisPonzinibbio won
Rodriguez vs. BashiRodriguez won
Soriano vs. MedicSoriano won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Curtis vs. Kopylov

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event