UFC · resolved market

Dern vs. Ribas

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8289c00326d355cefee417e4486b9744e9421d75f9f2ca23879b47028133a49

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Dernof Dern, Ribas
Resolved: Jan 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,556 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7113…a1fcbacked Ribas	63c	7,847$4,943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,943.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Ribas	65c	6,224$4,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,022.82	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.2wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Ribas	62c	5,500$3,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,409.99	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Dern	36c	5,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,199.92	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb8…e817backed Dern	38c	3,920$1,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,430.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Dern	37c	3,050$1,129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,921.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Dern	35c	2,338$818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Dern	38c	1,994$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,243.84	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Ribas	63c	1,500$943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.98	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed Dern	37c	1,497$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$941.91	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Dern	37c	1,351$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.35	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Ribas	61c	1,271$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.82	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Dern	34c	1,215$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.9	185	60%111 W · 74 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dern	35c	1,157$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$755.64	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Dern	45c	1,154$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$633.67	140	45.7%64 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Dern	35c	1,140$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$741	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Dern	37c	1,100$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.23	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Dern	38c	1,053$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.63	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Ribas	63c	1,000$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Dern	68c	991.99$676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.43	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Ribas	25c	828.02$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.34	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Ribas	66c	753.8$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Ribas	62c	632.48$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.14	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Ribas	64c	625$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Dern	69c	577.21$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.21	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Dern	34c	557.42$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.9	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Ribas	64c	550$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Dern	38c	528.13$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.13	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5c…5b0fbacked Ribas	66c	454.55$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Ribas	66c	430.3$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Ribas	58c	404.99$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.55	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Dern	34c	404.77$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Ribas	64c	400$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…8ccdbacked Dern	35c	394.17$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.21	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+109.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Ribas	64c	390.99$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Ribas	64c	379.17$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.67	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Dern	34c	365.14$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.24	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Ribas	64c	359.38$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ribas	50c	354.2$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.86	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Ribas	62c	350$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.45	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Dern	36c	300$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Ribas	63c	300$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Dern	36c	280$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.2	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Dern	36c	278.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.06	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Ribas	12c	272.22$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.67	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dern	37c	260.92$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.87	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Dern	61c	257$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.23	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Ribas	62c	249.98$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.99	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Ribas	64c	234.38$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Dern	39c	232.87$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.05	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Dern	38c	220$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.4	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Dern	34c	219$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.29	104	39.4%41 W · 63 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Ribas	64c	210.94$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Dern	35c	200$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94f…8936backed Ribas	64c	193.89$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.09	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Dern	36c	172.06$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.84	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Ribas	67c	171.72$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.05	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0d9b…deddbacked Dern	37c	162.16$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba86…a66abacked Ribas	64c	156.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	91	67%61 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Dern	37c	150$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Dern	37c	148.3$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.43	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	24cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Ribas	30c	145.08$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Ribas	64c	137.5$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Dern	37c	135.14$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.14	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+3.5wins	+0.50per pick	35cpaid	+143.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Dern	39c	132.51$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.83	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+130.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1984…241ebacked Dern	39c	128.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+156.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Ribas	64c	113.67$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.75	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Dern	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Ribas	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-7.4wins	-0.23per pick	54cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Dern	34c	100$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Ribas	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaca…cbdbbacked Ribas	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35fc…db55backed Ribas	67c	100$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9e…e0cfbacked Dern	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Dern	36c	99.94$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.96	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Ribas	60c	89.92$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Dern	34c	87.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.98	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Dern	38c	86$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb586…7f97backed Ribas	64c	81.25$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	68cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Ribas	64c	78.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Ribas	64c	78.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	71cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb3…a376backed Ribas	64c	78.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bb…9799backed Ribas	64c	70$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Ribas	63c	63.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3559…0467backed Ribas	68c	58.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	66cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd67a…eb69backed Dern	35c	56.35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.35	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.65per pick	35cpaid	+181.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…bde3backed Ribas	66c	55.84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe41c…6673backed Dern	38c	52.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f94…35d2backed Dern	37c	50$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.7	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Ribas	62c	49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x353a…55c0backed Dern	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Dern	36c	47.22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.22	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa254…bc15backed Ribas	64c	44.69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Ribas	63c	41.69$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.32per pick	59cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa815…c0cdbacked Ribas	64c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	38cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Ribas	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc125…10dcbacked Ribas	62c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdc…5b92backed Ribas	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62d…dae3backed Ribas	64c	39.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d9…3383backed Dern	39c	38.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.43	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+156.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dern vs. Ribasthis page
Almeida vs. AlhassanAlmeida won
Curtis vs. KopylovKopylov won
Ponzinibbio vs. HarrisPonzinibbio won
Rodriguez vs. BashiRodriguez won
Soriano vs. MedicSoriano won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dern vs. Ribas

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event