UFC · resolved market
Soriano vs. Medic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c549714391dcde6d82f995227633b056f40920b5943bd58b0bf2f300f2b244a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sorianoof Soriano, Medic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Medic | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Medic | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Soriano | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Soriano | 36c | 4,870$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…8b15backed Medic | 66c | 4,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Medic | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Medic | 64c | 1,873$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Medic | 64c | 1,849$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.27 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Soriano | 36c | 1,827$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.38 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Soriano | 33c | 1,408$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Soriano | 71c | 1,203$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.53 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559a…2865backed Medic | 67c | 1,027$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Medic | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medic | 67c | 1,000$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.99 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Medic | 2c | 999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Medic | 58c | 406.33$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Medic | 62c | 334.13$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Soriano | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Soriano | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Medic | 65c | 216.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Soriano | 33c | 205.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Medic | 67c | 201.34$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Medic | 64c | 186$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…2da9backed Soriano | 36c | 175.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Soriano | 36c | 153$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Medic | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Medic | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Soriano | 36c | 128.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Medic | 64c | 122.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Medic | 66c | 113.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Soriano | 36c | 109.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…cbdbbacked Medic | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Medic | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Soriano | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Medic | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Soriano | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…39c4backed Medic | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Medic | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Medic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Medic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…a66abacked Medic | 67c | 74.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 67%61 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Soriano | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 35cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Medic | 65c | 73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Medic | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…ba6fbacked Medic | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…0467backed Medic | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked Medic | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Soriano | 32c | 57.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…0eecbacked Medic | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Soriano | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Soriano | 33c | 39.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…9d93backed Soriano | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…eab0backed Medic | 67c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…261abacked Medic | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Medic | 61c | 29.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Medic | 59c | 22.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…1ffcbacked Medic | 66c | 21.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…bd48backed Medic | 66c | 20.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc99a…649abacked Medic | 66c | 20.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca6…212ebacked Medic | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…79fdbacked Medic | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…4c2bbacked Medic | 66c | 19.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Medic | 63c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…4a1cbacked Medic | 66c | 17.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…5510backed Medic | 65c | 16.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Soriano vs. Medicthis page
- Almeida vs. AlhassanAlmeida won
- Curtis vs. KopylovKopylov won
- Dern vs. RibasDern won
- Ponzinibbio vs. HarrisPonzinibbio won
- Rodriguez vs. BashiRodriguez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.