TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,997 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No63c999.99$630 inWon+$3701,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes37c959.45$355 inLost-$35520040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No52c416.67$217 inWon+$2001,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No65c367.07$240 inWon+$126.894,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fb…9a62backed Yes48c320.55$154 inLost-$154.421625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc984…195ebacked Yes43c315.73$137 inLost-$137.14850%24 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed No66c294.99$195 inWon+$100.316361.3%100 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2691…f3b8backed Yes34c289$99 inLost-$98.834131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No56c266.64$149 inWon+$117.325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b80…663fbacked Yes48c208.33$100 inLost-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf354…ca66backed Yes34c155.84$53 inLost-$52.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce64…9b19backed Yes34c138.08$48 inLost-$47.690%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e2c…d5cdbacked No68c75.8$52 inWon+$24.265263.5%33 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd44…17b7backed Yes35c70.69$25 inLost-$251020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked No28c50$14 inWon+$367326%19 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked No57c25$14 inWon+$10.7537755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No63c20$13 inWon+$7.520558.5%120 W · 85 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No66c19.95$13 inWon+$6.788057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.