NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2389696dabeddcb493842ef034a08229418cd07f29b5d465ee9cfd669756b628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,941 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 15,306$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Bucks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 50c | 9,615$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,767.56 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bucks | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 8,051$3,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,944.77 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Bucks | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,499$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.42 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Cavaliers | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…eed7backed Bucks | 50c | 2,882$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Bucks | 51c | 2,882$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.36 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,695$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.5 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Bucks | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,212$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Cavaliers | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 41c | 551.68$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Cavaliers | 16c | 390.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…8a48backed Cavaliers | 70c | 382.89$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Bucks | 72c | 347.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Bucks | 49c | 338.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 50c | 308.44$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Cavaliers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Bucks | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 15c | 138.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Bucks | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 89 | 70.8%63 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 104.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…e3bbbacked Bucks | 51c | 97.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…dbd1backed Bucks | 80c | 63.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Cavaliers | 50c | 52.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Bucks | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Cavaliers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 39.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 33.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed Cavaliers | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 24.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Bucks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…d357backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bucks won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.