TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,758 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Under50c40,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c25,000$12,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,425.691,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c13,535$6,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,790.199,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c6,997$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.564,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c4,795$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.682,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c4,442$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.014,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c4,105$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.84,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c3,241$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.172,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c2,171$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.311,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over50c2,102$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.041,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Under51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over50c1,815$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.654,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,667$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.8464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c1,596$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.763,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under51c1,284$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.8437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under51c1,269$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64718749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c1,211$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.356,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over48c834.26$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.8140350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515f…7e7fbacked Over50c784.82$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.414639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c773.3$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c705.11$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.612,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bee…0ca9backed Over49c485$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.352454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over51c484.84$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.987744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under47c400$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under51c388.03$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5942153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Under50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756538.5%25 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Over56c303$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.325036%18 W · 32 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked Under51c246.46$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12515441.6%64 W · 90 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Under51c246.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259841.8%41 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Under51c246.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Under51c245.81$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12511642.2%49 W · 67 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under49c226.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1153149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9823435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9214471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9625846.9%121 W · 137 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under50c199.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Over49c192.5$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8210144.6%45 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3131954.5%174 W · 145 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over49c192.08$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.962,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over52c179.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5738152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under48c168.96$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.13,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Under48c168.26$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8416642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under44c155.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3421443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d5…531bbacked Over50c153.84$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick53cpaid-54.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Over55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2510349.5%51 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under48c137.15$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.831,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over51c136.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1239943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca32…47f0backed Under51c135.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.527042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over55c106.82$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0723657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5125559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5158450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Over51c96.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.116848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f9…6d23backed Under56c89.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over57c85.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6120762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca0…4b6abacked Under51c82.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.742937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under51c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.453945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Under50c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510943.1%47 W · 62 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…ce56backed Under50c74.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3212044.2%53 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over51c71.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.567248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c71.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.795,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…882abacked Under49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.35650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8b…6119backed Under50c69.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.116844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3087049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under53c58.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.62,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over50c56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2862546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9685…718ebacked Over48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under49c49.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.151,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf0…0a05backed Over51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…ec19backed Under53c46.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513748.2%66 W · 71 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over50c45.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9291746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Over51c45.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3210252%53 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Under43c45.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5869337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Over52c42.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1811128.8%32 W · 79 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over50c38.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x534a…023abacked Under51c36.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.685044%22 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Under43c32.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.015733.3%19 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.325138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ead…5c81backed Under47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1a…8984backed Under64c28.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.165540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c24.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.473,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under52c22.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5851438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe2b…8fe6backed Under52c22.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.546261.3%38 W · 24 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x524f…bcbdbacked Under50c21.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.622433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.