NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858f68aa106c3674f2e44efa98fc6960f586f1712764ea989fc0267fc48fe31a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over | 49c | 3,400$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734 | 442 | 52.3%231 W · 211 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ee…1a13backed Over | 47c | 2,763$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 1,948$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…0e4abacked Under | 47c | 1,513$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…e7e0backed Under | 53c | 1,479$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 58c | 1,195$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.02 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 1,137$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.83 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 907.1$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 904.84$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.26 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 42c | 864.04$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…a27bbacked Under | 53c | 750.58$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…1501backed Under | 53c | 533$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Under | 58c | 529.26$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 459.03$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 42c | 397.69$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.28 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 395.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 54c | 321.7$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 58c | 281.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 56c | 150.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…c342backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…9740backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 109.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 107.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 31c | 97.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 50c | 93.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…476bbacked Under | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Over | 47c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 43c | 62.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 40c | 60.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9685…718ebacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 44c | 47.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 34.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 31.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 30.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Over | 50c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…fa86backed Over | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bucks won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.