NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7932f875e13b08b23282460a7efb04e9bc48a56cdb316b8825ced9c96a521a

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,948 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Over	52c	18,837$9,751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,086.05	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under	48c	14,963$7,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,182.45	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	52c	11,032$5,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,339.1	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	8,900$4,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,253.72	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under	49c	7,798$3,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,821.02	316	44.6%141 W · 175 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under	48c	6,225$2,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,987.95	316	43.4%137 W · 179 L	-18.0wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02ac…346fbacked Under	48c	4,167$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-4.1wins	-0.29per pick	51cpaid	-61%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under	48c	2,498$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.04	175	50.9%89 W · 86 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under	48c	2,304$1,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.9	304	46.7%142 W · 162 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under	48c	2,300$1,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,104	377	47.5%179 W · 198 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	50c	2,079$1,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045.88	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Under	48c	1,950$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$936	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Under	51c	1,180$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.8	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	51c	1,075$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.01	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	1,033$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.4	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.78	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over	52c	775.38$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.08	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	50c	679.34$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.56	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	51c	644.04$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.58	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	277	46.6%129 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	560.68$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.57	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Over	54c	345.45$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.17	215	46.5%100 W · 115 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	111	57.7%64 W · 47 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Over	54c	297.85$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.11	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Over	54c	238.13$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.67	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-11.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	258	46.9%121 W · 137 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7608…92e2backed Over	50c	196$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe140…949fbacked Over	53c	187.72$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.72	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+3.3wins	+0.37per pick	52cpaid	+70.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1051…8cd6backed Over	53c	186.96$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+87%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under	46c	174.83$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.97	421	53%223 W · 198 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Over	54c	156.59$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.78	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under	46c	150.15$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.07	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Over	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-11.2wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	52c	122.37$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.63	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	50c	104.45$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Over	54c	100.66$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.67	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	42c	95.08$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Over	54c	90.91$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.82	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Over	54c	89.12$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.32	221	48%106 W · 115 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed Over	54c	87.97$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.79	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b9f…3aeebacked Over	53c	85.71$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.3	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b6…5f6ebacked Over	53c	75.16$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.03	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Over	53c	74.21$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.61	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde95…b97fbacked Over	53c	62.81$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.81	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Over	54c	58.88$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	94	41.5%39 W · 55 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Over	54c	57.41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.41	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over	53c	55.96$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.11	140	54.3%76 W · 64 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1a…8984backed Under	49c	55.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed Over	54c	54.18$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.18	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked Over	54c	51.8$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.99	154	41.6%64 W · 90 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc667…0359backed Over	54c	51.44$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.82	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7117…4339backed Over	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Over	53c	46.74$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.74	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Over	54c	44.64$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.75	98	41.8%41 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over	53c	41.94$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	260	43.8%114 W · 146 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	44c	39.71$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Over	54c	38.62$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1315…cb3fbacked Over	54c	38.47$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.85	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c7…184dbacked Over	53c	37.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88bc…fc0dbacked Over	54c	34.53$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.03	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+4.1wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6132…2e70backed Over	52c	34.4$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.4	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa15…270ebacked Over	54c	32.32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked Under	49c	31.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	129	49.6%64 W · 65 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Over	54c	29.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.64	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf33…4f09backed Over	54c	28.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.98	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Over	54c	27.37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.68	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed Over	54c	26.19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c50…7f4bbacked Over	54c	25.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over	49c	22.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f2…a659backed Over	54c	21.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.99	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	56c	21.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed Over	54c	21.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.79	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Over	53c	20.9$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	342	48.8%167 W · 175 L	+12.5wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf1…8506backed Over	54c	20.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8260…2083backed Over	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.28per pick	57cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Over	54c	19.85$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	200	49%98 W · 102 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bucks won
Cavaliers vs. BucksCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.5No won
Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bucks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bucks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bucks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bucks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event