NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673ee7b40dcdc4372084c3382fac7ad61e47acc601f5f73ca6119c7385476c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,205 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Under | 43c | 3,245$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.39 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 3,109$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 47c | 1,130$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.15 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 53c | 1,002$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.09 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 16c | 683.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 682.88$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.49 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 561.74$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 530.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 364.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 48c | 345.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 329.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Over | 65c | 308.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 54c | 220.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 26c | 199.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…7e7fbacked Over | 53c | 192.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…fd65backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 56c | 184$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 67c | 164.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Over | 57c | 157.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 43c | 150.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 108.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 53c | 105.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Under | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Over | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 40c | 76.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…5582backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2669backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 32c | 46.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 40.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 46c | 39.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 39c | 36.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Over | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 62c | 28.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Under | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bucks won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.