NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb1ad0945e868f4f2802f811453bb5e438debb3e2c20c2725ed432a276d93c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,075 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb12d…f73cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 6,762$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.98 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers | 50c | 5,000$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.11 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Bucks | 51c | 2,589$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.03 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 50c | 2,453$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.47 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 55c | 2,287$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Cavaliers | 53c | 1,800$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Cavaliers | 43c | 1,322$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…981bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,282$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…cb68backed Bucks | 47c | 970$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks | 52c | 805.13$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.39 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Bucks | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…8536backed Cavaliers | 55c | 781.81$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 45c | 717.99$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 666.6$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Cavaliers | 61c | 645.44$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cavaliers | 53c | 611.59$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.18 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Bucks | 48c | 395.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Cavaliers | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…ed78backed Bucks | 46c | 313.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5478…cf08backed Bucks | 49c | 245.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks | 48c | 222.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Cavaliers | 53c | 172$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 49c | 161.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bucks | 50c | 123.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Bucks | 54c | 108.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Bucks | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 37c | 102.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Bucks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers | 53c | 94.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Bucks | 51c | 91.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Bucks | 49c | 61.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Bucks | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bucks | 51c | 48.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Bucks | 49c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Bucks | 49c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 49c | 25.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Bucks | 50c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Bucks | 47c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Bucks | 50c | 20.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Cavaliers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bucks won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.