TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes47c2,561$1,214 inWon+$1,347.381,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No63c1,660$1,050 inLost-$1,049.5965762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No46c1,500$695 inLost-$6951,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No64c775.56$500 inLost-$500.031,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes35c571.43$200 inWon+$371.4320040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes48c380.12$182 inWon+$197.6692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No57c312.57$178 inLost-$177.565,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes43c311.15$134 inWon+$177.4758740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ebd…21cdbacked Yes35c286.67$100 inWon+$186.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfab5…aa48backed Yes36c262.84$94 inWon+$168.841030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Yes49c237.86$117 inWon+$121.3183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30e…7c7abacked Yes36c216.67$78 inWon+$138.67850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes47c211.03$99 inWon+$111.8597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Yes37c200$74 inWon+$1264639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd44…17b7backed Yes36c78.58$28 inWon+$50.61020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes49c64.7$32 inWon+$3389853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x907a…9ad3backed Yes34c57$19 inWon+$37.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No62c52.81$32 inLost-$32.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No49c50$25 inLost-$24.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Yes43c38.54$17 inWon+$21.9760267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No66c26.88$18 inLost-$17.7490357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes43c26$11 inWon+$14.8214560.7%88 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No65c25$16 inLost-$16.2532866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No66c22.9$15 inLost-$15.119869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No59c20$12 inLost-$11.820558.5%120 W · 85 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.