TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,561 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers45c6,321$2,844 inLost-$2,844.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Bucks55c6,300$3,465 inWon+$2,834.837865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks54c4,346$2,340 inWon+$2,006.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Cavaliers46c3,611$1,661 inLost-$1,661.0824744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Cavaliers47c646.79$304 inLost-$303.992425%6 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-42.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Cavaliers47c104.17$49 inLost-$48.966848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Bucks50c100$50 inWon+$5035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Cavaliers50c98$49 inLost-$491,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks49c97.96$48 inWon+$49.961,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers51c97.96$50 inLost-$49.964,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Bucks53c94.17$50 inWon+$44.261,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Bucks47c43.97$21 inWon+$23.342153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…8151backed Bucks50c40$20 inWon+$20875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Cavaliers47c38.67$18 inLost-$18.1357650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed Cavaliers47c30.61$14 inLost-$14.396163.9%39 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bucks55c21.38$12 inWon+$9.6229645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Bucks55c20$11 inWon+$915054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Bucks55c20$11 inWon+$920558.5%120 W · 85 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.