Music · resolved market
Will Sombr win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1278f161b546f237cf9a029d9383ff5da371ff047a5adad48ee3243a6f93b6fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 2c | 14,839$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.63 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 9,369$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.07 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…cb44backed Yes | 5c | 3,170$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 2,588$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,626$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,286$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 864.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 850$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…aebebacked Yes | 4c | 814.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 3c | 766.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 3c | 699.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 3c | 694.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 6c | 670.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 3c | 649.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…a03dbacked Yes | 3c | 634.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 563.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 505.07$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…a309backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…47f3backed Yes | 14c | 480$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…24c9backed Yes | 35c | 448$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…1f69backed Yes | 8c | 425.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 412.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…d1ccbacked Yes | 13c | 380$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe148…d084backed Yes | 7c | 340$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 337.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 331.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 326$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 9c | 317.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 306.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf480…d8adbacked Yes | 26c | 290$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 260.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…9cccbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked Yes | 13c | 198$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…65edbacked Yes | 21c | 191.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 182.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc31e…1c6fbacked Yes | 16c | 172.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0226…f186backed Yes | 12c | 168.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Yes | 11c | 137.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…5c1dbacked Yes | 27c | 112.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +285.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…657cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…de63backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…8fe2backed Yes | 27c | 73.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…0782backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…3b91backed Yes | 27c | 49.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sombr win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Alex Warren win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will KATSEYE win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will The Marías win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will beabadoobee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.