Movies · resolved market
Will Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13293015adbcf83be218c458d5da4edbb57e7a280004dd210bd4cade3a12a28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 5c | 4,480$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 6c | 3,808$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 8c | 1,259$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 8c | 1,217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…920cbacked No | 5c | 1,215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed No | 5c | 1,205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…44dcbacked No | 11c | 1,082$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 6c | 1,015$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 925.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 912.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 8c | 816.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 8c | 781.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 6c | 684.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 10c | 664.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 10c | 565.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 5c | 553.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 9c | 549.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…22b1backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 11c | 324.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 13c | 313.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 5c | 303.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…1d96backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 78c | 289.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 6c | 235.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 230.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 15c | 223.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…389cbacked No | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 206$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 8c | 199.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 6c | 191.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 9c | 178$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 160.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed No | 22c | 153.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…50d6backed No | 33c | 151.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 150.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked No | 8c | 132.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…dad0backed No | 16c | 127.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 16c | 87.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 68.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 64.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…953abacked Yes | 78c | 59.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Ryan Coogler (Sinners) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.