TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Pacers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,892,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,892,596 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 943 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Pacers27c185,185$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.9343542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bucks73c142,083$103,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,625.7666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bucks73c117,845$86,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,639.6196447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Bucks73c95,155$69,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,948.8322453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pacers26c94,498$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Pacers25c80,000$20,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,264.8319645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Bucks73c60,720$44,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,304.8720744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pacers27c48,339$13,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,158.421,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks75c47,850$35,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,905.94,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Pacers28c44,826$12,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,360.5116848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pacers0c38,802$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.577211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks73c37,302$27,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,134.11,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Pacers27c37,040$10,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.85030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Bucks74c25,350$18,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,59130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks73c24,907$18,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,724.824,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Pacers26c23,852$6,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,201.6227747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Pacers25c22,576$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.1439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers29c22,013$6,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,293.491,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Bucks73c21,856$15,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,901.075534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pacers26c17,776$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.5441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pacers30c17,772$5,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,348.681,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Bucks75c17,000$12,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,28057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Bucks59c16,851$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,851.1242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bucks72c15,444$11,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.1132540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Pacers12c15,000$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.172241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Bucks73c14,091$10,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.469655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks70c13,367$9,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,988.255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Bucks73c13,322$9,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.9811653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Bucks73c11,600$8,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1324551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Pacers27c11,600$3,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131.955032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Pacers31c10,810$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,322.7756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks71c10,627$7,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.953,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Bucks77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Pacers26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6009018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.981,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks57c9,806$5,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,216.5477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks74c9,724$7,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.621,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers30c9,401$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.3785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17aa…cbe4backed Pacers2c9,346$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks74c9,265$6,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.2876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks73c9,034$6,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers25c9,018$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Pacers41c8,500$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.9910743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pacers30c8,213$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4641,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Bucks73c7,500$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0256943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Pacers27c7,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.973847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Bucks71c7,455$5,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.9134851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Pacers29c7,050$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.669629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pacers7c6,445$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.641,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks74c6,371$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.591,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers27c6,200$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.981,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3048…b8eabacked Pacers27c6,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks75c5,294$3,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.253,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Bucks74c5,188$3,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.8819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bucks66c5,027$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.6147856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Pacers34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1a…8137backed Pacers27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pacers38c4,817$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.5689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c8…35f8backed Bucks68c4,500$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6b24backed Pacers29c4,500$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bucks70c4,477$3,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.5126353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Pacers28c4,419$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.423040%12 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pacers40c4,415$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.572,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Bucks73c4,300$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.8727241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pacers41c4,299$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.4166744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers28c4,289$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.575,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Bucks76c4,200$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00816849.4%83 W · 85 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Pacers34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks75c3,922$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.562,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…cac8backed Pacers27c3,800$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pacers38c3,732$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.982,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Pacers28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Bucks77c3,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.996357.1%36 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Bucks74c3,378$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.3856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bucks66c3,311$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.942,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9140…a9afbacked Bucks73c3,300$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Bucks74c3,267$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.968555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Bucks73c3,233$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.882254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed Bucks73c3,217$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.638055%44 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb867…b126backed Pacers32c3,150$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Pacers21c3,051$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.7236023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Bucks68c3,044$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.1516440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pacers27c3,020$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.255346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Bucks71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Bucks73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8105446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf713…aacfbacked Bucks73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Bucks74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Bucks72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Pacers28c3,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Pacers25c2,986$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7603946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Bucks73c2,885$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77918151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pacers29c2,817$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.113,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c2…f205backed Bucks71c2,740$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc522…9e81backed Bucks73c2,700$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Pacers27c2,697$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.1537842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc56…fb8cbacked Pacers27c2,600$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe75a…8e87backed Bucks73c2,600$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Pacers26c2,533$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66036718.5%68 W · 299 L-36.8wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.