TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,157,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,157,627 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Pacers46c328,139$150,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,943.9287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers45c248,004$111,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,597.9387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bucks54c150,000$81,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,999.9826253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Bucks55c93,279$51,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,975.555534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks54c75,402$40,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,684.921,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks54c58,277$31,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,663.014,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Bucks54c48,973$26,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,317.143351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Bucks57c30,444$17,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,10122453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks55c29,516$16,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,267.914,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Bucks54c28,985$15,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,333.0928643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks55c26,865$14,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,107.041,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Pacers46c20,907$9,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,617.3260351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Bucks55c19,691$10,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,860.9742348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Bucks55c17,559$9,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,901.4911653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks55c16,796$9,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,600.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks54c12,500$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pacers46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.972,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Bucks55c8,512$4,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,842.039629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers49c6,583$3,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks54c6,049$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.542,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Pacers42c5,382$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.4419645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Bucks55c4,545$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.458154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Bucks54c3,746$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.2913563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Bucks54c3,538$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.113154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Bucks54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.891,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks54c2,777$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.948,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks55c2,647$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.393,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Pacers65c2,510$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.331,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Bucks35c2,290$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.510342.7%44 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Bucks55c2,250$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.375446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Pacers43c2,076$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.4322643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Pacers45c2,029$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.0322948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Bucks56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks55c1,401$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.746,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Pacers42c1,100$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4629440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Pacers32c1,096$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.421443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Bucks54c1,095$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.754443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Pacers46c1,082$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers40c1,037$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Pacers46c1,033$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1727455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bucks54c1,000$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45691050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Bucks54c947.8$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9933146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bucks59c889.42$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks54c836.44$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.762,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Bucks54c769$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.745947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Bucks55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.277460.8%45 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks56c701.85$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Pacers42c680.26$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.716241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Pacers47c638.74$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1251438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pacers49c612.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Pacers43c492.27$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4848739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Bucks55c454.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5511158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Bucks54c449.96$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9843544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Bucks56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4339552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Pacers47c418.14$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5341947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Bucks54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18422746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bucks52c385.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7559140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Pacers47c380.13$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6648751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bucks55c377.36$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.811,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks44c365.28$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.82,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Pacers46c365$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.222336.8%82 W · 141 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Pacers45c318.78$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9439943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Bucks55c318.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7811855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Pacers58c309.29$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18018242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Bucks55c302.18$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1818055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers59c275.83$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.243,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Bucks55c273.45$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5664844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Bucks55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.731546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Bucks54c268.56$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.318658.1%50 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pacers47c266.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.971,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf836…e7b5backed Bucks55c259.55$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.815031.3%47 W · 103 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bucks57c259.13$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.772,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Bucks56c258.77$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6258450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks54c249.79$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.92,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks53c233.06$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8845151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Pacers47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers53c208.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.753,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Bucks57c206.21$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4824247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Bucks54c205$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.586160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Pacers47c204.61$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1730453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Bucks54c201.82$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.621450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Bucks55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9291148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Pacers47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Bucks53c195.85$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8513751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Pacers46c195.65$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9016749.1%82 W · 85 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks54c194.86$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.635,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Bucks52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3137852.9%200 W · 178 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9a…989abacked Bucks55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.824553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb6…8af4backed Bucks55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Pacers46c180.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2434342.9%147 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d4…a401backed Bucks48c178.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.284242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Bucks55c177.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.099455.3%52 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks57c177.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.93,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0705…df73backed Bucks55c177.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11a…09eebacked Bucks53c176.3$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.310656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Bucks57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Bucks52c173.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.086256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Bucks55c172.85$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8515253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.