Fifa International · resolved market
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18420690fe10251f5e039f4e6e936624214fdfdf5673bd0ab297d291f281cff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,344$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,736$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.2 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 68c | 1,670$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.43 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked No | 73c | 1,372$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 35c | 757.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.61 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 67c | 671$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…0a39backed No | 68c | 499.15$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 483.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 437$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.58 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 34c | 436.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 33c | 434$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 406 | 49.8%202 W · 204 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 68c | 289.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 30c | 265$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 214.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 28c | 208.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…330ebacked Yes | 20c | 142$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…d516backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 69c | 135.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 29c | 104.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 86.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 66c | 83.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 80.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed No | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 69.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 67.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 69c | 58.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 30c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…7a8bbacked No | 72c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Bosnia & Herzegovina win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.