TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tuncay Duranof Alec Beckley, Tuncay Duran
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,714 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Alec Beckley14c22,784$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.78,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alec Beckley10c8,446$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.058,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Alec Beckley50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00058639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Tuncay Duran51c1,455$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.91,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Alec Beckley9c1,417$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.391755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Alec Beckley14c1,328$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.072,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59b…7ab0backed Alec Beckley14c1,217$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.433737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Tuncay Duran51c1,171$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.641,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tuncay Duran76c1,160$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.294,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Tuncay Duran52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.941,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f1…b417backed Tuncay Duran51c999.95$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.984440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tuncay Duran72c995$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.339,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Tuncay Duran80c890$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17846040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Tuncay Duran52c885.75$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.1687337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Alec Beckley48c796.14$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.157,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Alec Beckley49c763.33$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8157842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Tuncay Duran52c724.61$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3611158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alec Beckley48c718.55$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.93,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716c…e3a1backed Alec Beckley12c666.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.371435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Tuncay Duran75c663.34$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8316552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Alec Beckley49c579$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.711,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Alec Beckley13c558.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.332,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Alec Beckley37c509.53$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19057321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tuncay Duran78c500$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.454,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Tuncay Duran51c475$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.41,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Alec Beckley50c469.3$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23345256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0c…c1f2backed Alec Beckley11c469.09$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Alec Beckley12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027528.4%78 W · 197 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Alec Beckley50c396.42$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.211,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Tuncay Duran55c395.32$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1545744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Alec Beckley50c392.16$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.081,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Alec Beckley25c378$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.51,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tuncay Duran78c375.44$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.128,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Alec Beckley47c374.55$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.633,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Alec Beckley27c370.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0415444.2%68 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ce…590abacked Alec Beckley50c366.67$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1846041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x092a…8577backed Alec Beckley20c312.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.449943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc4…541dbacked Alec Beckley13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Alec Beckley19c286$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Tuncay Duran76c266$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0726921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Alec Beckley27c250.65$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.611,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1132…5a2fbacked Tuncay Duran51c241.18$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.181172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alec Beckley27c230.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.834,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Tuncay Duran72c224.45$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.413,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Tuncay Duran71c190$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.11,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Alec Beckley15c163.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0666834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Alec Beckley15c161.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535444.6%158 W · 196 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Alec Beckley17c159.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7758048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Alec Beckley48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd729…7ef2backed Alec Beckley50c149.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.788450%42 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78b1…cf6abacked Alec Beckley25c146.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Tuncay Duran72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8928562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1edb…a60bbacked Alec Beckley47c136.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.825242.3%22 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Tuncay Duran73c136$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf39…3394backed Alec Beckley49c134.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.833462.6%209 W · 125 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Alec Beckley48c134$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.322,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9265…2cc0backed Tuncay Duran76c130.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.935775.4%43 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Alec Beckley27c119$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1373748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tuncay Duran79c115.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.796,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Alec Beckley49c114.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3150340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe022…7d0fbacked Alec Beckley46c109.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016833.9%57 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alec Beckley48c104.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Alec Beckley49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4958745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Tuncay Duran54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Alec Beckley50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Alec Beckley17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb0…c615backed Tuncay Duran73c84.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.658456%47 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Alec Beckley48c81.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.293,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17c…c428backed Alec Beckley50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6112…0827backed Alec Beckley50c64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Tuncay Duran52c63.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4651347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Tuncay Duran75c63.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7918038.3%69 W · 111 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Alec Beckley49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3088560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Tuncay Duran75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…9bc4backed Tuncay Duran77c56.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9347274.4%351 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Tuncay Duran70c51.94$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.342,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Alec Beckley50c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.519634.2%67 W · 129 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Tuncay Duran52c50.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4335436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Tuncay Duran59c50.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.662,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3109…ff47backed Alec Beckley25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8711…d2d0backed Tuncay Duran61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1843358.4%253 W · 180 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alec Beckley48c47.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.857,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Tuncay Duran52c44.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2328343.8%124 W · 159 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x541d…61cfbacked Alec Beckley50c41.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.826261.3%38 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Alec Beckley27c41.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2517152.6%90 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Alec Beckley49c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.092,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Alec Beckley49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032649.1%160 W · 166 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Alec Beckley49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f97…6aafbacked Tuncay Duran52c37.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2211557.4%66 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Tuncay Duran49c32.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Tuncay Duran72c31.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8179…5c4dbacked Alec Beckley49c31.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.233046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea5…04f6backed Alec Beckley49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Alec Beckley41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.374955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Alec Beckley44c29.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.989737.1%36 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked Tuncay Duran70c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77764.9%50 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Tuncay Duran50c27.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6867144.7%300 W · 371 L+30.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tuncay Duran75c27.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.826,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Alec Beckley47c25.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0985637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Tuncay Duran50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.