TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c713.35$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes44c679.85$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.0556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked Yes36c572.43$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.465834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c503.52$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c487.4$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.965,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes35c461.59$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c439.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.756,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No27c384.19$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.291,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes51c331.3$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.961,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes50c326.81$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed No67c299.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c298.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.681,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c296$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.364,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c293.25$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No67c270.8$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.1123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No48c265.05$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeead…178dbacked Yes79c252.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.431145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick72cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes57c246.41$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.189239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes34c244.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.935325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3fcebacked Yes49c241.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.961421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c239.32$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c238.37$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.678,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes48c215.19$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.251,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No20c198.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.952,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No18c194.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.961,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes41c192.8$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.812540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed Yes31c192.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.944744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32af…a7c3backed Yes53c188.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.133842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c186.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.12,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No21c186.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c183.89$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.284,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c162.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes63c160$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c153.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes53c152.51$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0e54…5f61backed No48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c147.89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No52c145.83$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c143.17$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.856,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c136.37$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.152,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c133.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes52c133.89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5627246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c132.73$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.584,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No49c129.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4113461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c126.87$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No15c114.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes43c111$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c110.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.771,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes38c108.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4441331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No10c108$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes39c106$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No11c103.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes43c103$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.861,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes62c101.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.692,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c101.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.622,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9926540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No48c97.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes75c96.23$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed Yes34c95.91$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.913751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c92.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes39c84.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6247935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c84.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.082,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No60c83.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No56c82.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3545253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c79.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.362,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No22c78.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.522,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85cc…4746backed Yes30c78.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.58757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No38c78.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8316550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes32c78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.342,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No19c75.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.061,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes60c75.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…9efebacked Yes41c73.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.941526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes37c72.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6854234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes48c72.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.792,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No35c71.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fb…427abacked No29c71.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No43c70.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes33c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.924732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes39c69.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.414134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes43c67.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No27c67.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.132,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.153,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c66.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.153,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes43c66.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1616129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes77c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9561365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes42c62.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.023,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes30c61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.724432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes66c60.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4719947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No47c58.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.674,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes48c58.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes45c57.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.766243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes69c57.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8220662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b0a…5315backed Yes44c56.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.013345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ba5…af82backed Yes53c56.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No46c55.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6317747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c51.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.