NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x228708ed08eac0f4426946d7724aec0ce1cb1712284d92d819e6b9a5e1ef2036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258f…4493backed Bucks | 46c | 1,818$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 55c | 1,337$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Celtics | 56c | 717.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.18 | 141 | 52.5%74 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Celtics | 71c | 701.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.47 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bucks | 50c | 678.18$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.94 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Bucks | 43c | 567.71$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…abc5backed Celtics | 56c | 540.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.34 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Celtics | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Bucks | 44c | 453.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Bucks | 44c | 299.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Celtics | 62c | 296.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bucks | 45c | 250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Celtics | 55c | 204.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 45c | 202.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…8a1dbacked Celtics | 57c | 198.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 45c | 158$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Celtics | 61c | 102.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Celtics | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Bucks | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Bucks | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Celtics | 54c | 60.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…b9fdbacked Celtics | 54c | 53.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Celtics | 53c | 47.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Celtics | 53c | 46.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…8b38backed Celtics | 55c | 34.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…ce8abacked Celtics | 55c | 34.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…66e2backed Celtics | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…06d8backed Celtics | 55c | 23.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 198 | 52%103 W · 95 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Baylor Scheierman: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Celtics vs. BucksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.