TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Talita Alencarof Julia Polastri, Talita Alencar
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Julia Polastri69c15,995$10,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,975.0413452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Talita Alencar62c14,421$8,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,545.873943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Talita Alencar56c14,203$7,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,212.0929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Talita Alencar31c11,646$3,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,035.984047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Julia Polastri3c9,631$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2510746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Julia Polastri68c8,662$5,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,912.2620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Talita Alencar31c6,658$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.1716244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Talita Alencar32c6,416$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.714957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Julia Polastri25c4,774$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.7810542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Julia Polastri38c4,767$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.4233132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Julia Polastri47c3,895$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.2853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Julia Polastri68c3,824$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.5210255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Talita Alencar30c3,819$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.4515939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Julia Polastri72c2,957$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.0335564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Julia Polastri69c2,925$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.988940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Julia Polastri68c2,672$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.1728849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Talita Alencar30c2,379$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.0126743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Julia Polastri1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Julia Polastri1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Julia Polastri1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Julia Polastri1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Julia Polastri1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick5cpaid+238.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Talita Alencar53c2,241$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.0127448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Julia Polastri40c2,188$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.7120139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Julia Polastri68c2,143$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.926246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Julia Polastri68c2,141$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.085650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Julia Polastri2c2,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Talita Alencar31c2,064$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.414847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Julia Polastri44c2,042$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.784327.9%12 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Julia Polastri23c2,032$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1913832.6%45 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Julia Polastri10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Talita Alencar33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9920233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Julia Polastri68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.958851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Julia Polastri68c1,998$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.725156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Talita Alencar32c1,970$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.7316955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Talita Alencar50c1,934$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Talita Alencar32c1,678$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.7426140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Talita Alencar32c1,484$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.964447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Talita Alencar75c1,477$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.573946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Julia Polastri68c1,468$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.997862.8%49 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Talita Alencar46c1,447$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.415933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b61…599cbacked Julia Polastri56c1,399$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.731735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Julia Polastri63c1,310$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.3811332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Julia Polastri1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Julia Polastri1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Julia Polastri69c1,044$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.668754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Julia Polastri69c1,030$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.4736655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Julia Polastri1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Julia Polastri69c995.62$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.989756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Julia Polastri69c981.4$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.173647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Julia Polastri68c980.8$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.9422661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Julia Polastri53c912.08$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.997647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Julia Polastri2c900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Talita Alencar32c896.75$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.9435648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Talita Alencar69c862.48$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Julia Polastri69c856.87$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.2410949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f8…2869backed Talita Alencar31c834.91$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Julia Polastri26c830.62$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5615540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Talita Alencar79c745.87$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.272661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…c08cbacked Julia Polastri69c711.16$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e48…f025backed Talita Alencar75c656.91$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.421457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c0…e4cabacked Julia Polastri68c641.78$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Talita Alencar32c638.58$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.242948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Talita Alencar32c599.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.661258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fb…a074backed Talita Alencar32c599.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.66450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+125.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Talita Alencar32c599.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.663246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Julia Polastri40c583.98$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.133151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Julia Polastri69c512.03$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.33655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Talita Alencar32c500.58$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.46339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Julia Polastri11c500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Talita Alencar33c495.64$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.673435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Talita Alencar76c492.77$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8190553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Julia Polastri69c490.7$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.5830964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Julia Polastri67c490.1$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3716746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Talita Alencar32c482.93$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.391662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Julia Polastri11c480$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Julia Polastri20c469.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.95851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ae1…bbedbacked Talita Alencar64c456.78$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.042040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0551…3d39backed Julia Polastri67c456.02$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Talita Alencar48c446.05$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.752934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Julia Polastri68c441.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.122050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Julia Polastri69c426.7$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.422937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99b1…196abacked Julia Polastri67c421.46$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.998861.4%54 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Julia Polastri63c403.21$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5831855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked Julia Polastri69c398.25$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.793756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Julia Polastri58c390.87$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4826736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Talita Alencar37c383.75$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9218440.8%75 W · 109 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Julia Polastri59c383$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7516156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Talita Alencar31c377.65$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1911749.6%58 W · 59 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Talita Alencar32c368.65$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.686254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Talita Alencar63c359.38$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.852343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Julia Polastri69c355.58$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.356045%27 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Julia Polastri20c351.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.235139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Talita Alencar74c329.77$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.747256.9%41 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Talita Alencar32c329.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+47.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Talita Alencar67c323.03$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1412451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Talita Alencar42c313.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.055736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Talita Alencar32c306.94$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.721560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Talita Alencar32c306.94$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.728851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Talita Alencar32c293.75$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.7513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.