TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof FURIA, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$564,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA51c60,000$30,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,599.9881751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Natus Vincere36c48,652$17,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,319.259942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere46c38,857$17,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,967.4981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked FURIA65c34,231$22,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,111.5322468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FURIA65c28,318$18,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,289.6121042.9%90 W · 120 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Natus Vincere51c22,514$11,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,060.223355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FURIA64c21,422$13,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,774.5312648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa566…0a96backed FURIA0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere46c15,561$7,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,354.44,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Natus Vincere39c14,249$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,737.0227133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere51c10,616$5,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,237.933,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere66c10,047$6,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,437.671,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere46c9,432$4,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,122.711,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Natus Vincere76c8,643$6,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.258342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere54c7,789$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.721,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FURIA64c7,767$4,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.9546949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed FURIA45c6,058$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.336648.5%32 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Natus Vincere35c5,890$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.5111655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked FURIA56c5,554$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.874763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdea3…e4babacked FURIA51c5,004$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Natus Vincere35c4,492$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.5857647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed FURIA16c3,784$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.4632425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere38c3,576$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.8927950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FURIA64c3,527$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.7946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed FURIA36c3,380$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.87245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Natus Vincere36c3,145$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.510749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4327…cf00backed FURIA64c3,145$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked FURIA65c3,122$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.9810450%52 W · 52 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere60c3,035$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.1383652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Natus Vincere49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5309037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Natus Vincere35c2,892$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.617538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Natus Vincere49c2,890$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.5310549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50e…1cd9backed Natus Vincere38c2,631$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.054055%22 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Natus Vincere40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.5626045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed FURIA65c2,182$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.763953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed FURIA65c2,143$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.0211044.5%49 W · 61 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Natus Vincere58c2,058$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.543333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked FURIA66c2,007$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.668038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed FURIA50c2,000$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.214852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Natus Vincere36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2809343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Natus Vincere35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3007055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcff…9527backed Natus Vincere74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f3…8cbdbacked Natus Vincere41c1,996$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.27475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FURIA22c1,980$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.951,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf1…5c57backed FURIA65c1,968$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.492528%7 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Natus Vincere68c1,945$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.2131757.7%183 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Natus Vincere49c1,907$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.735149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FURIA63c1,900$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.9575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FURIA50c1,876$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.481,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x827f…f25bbacked FURIA64c1,850$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere50c1,816$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.271,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4d…d116backed FURIA56c1,778$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.494637%17 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed FURIA64c1,605$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0277955.7%44 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe328…f4a3backed FURIA64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked FURIA8c1,563$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed FURIA44c1,550$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.9924935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed FURIA50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed FURIA60c1,329$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80122942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Natus Vincere41c1,321$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.7532352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac04…e9e4backed Natus Vincere40c1,296$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3cd3backed FURIA57c1,281$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.2222560.4%136 W · 89 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked FURIA33c1,111$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.822661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed Natus Vincere76c1,093$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked FURIA64c1,086$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69519043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FURIA55c1,080$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.5644957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere48c1,079$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.253,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Natus Vincere77c1,042$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.568267.1%55 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked FURIA1c1,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.413315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere65c1,000$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1158961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1a…0e47backed FURIA1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked FURIA63c988.4$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.572433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Natus Vincere47c961.13$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.221656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbba…f349backed FURIA65c951.82$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.682532%8 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Natus Vincere36c945.28$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ee…e28cbacked FURIA12c928.9$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158848.9%43 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere37c918.18$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.4560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked FURIA63c904.94$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.6312153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Natus Vincere36c828.08$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9726251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfacf…44adbacked FURIA53c799.99$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.994555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca7…6040backed FURIA64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-72.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Natus Vincere36c777$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.2815743.3%68 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…3030backed FURIA54c768.68$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.531747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere40c752.79$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.7978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…66a1backed Natus Vincere38c750$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+109.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed FURIA67c748.61$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed FURIA66c742.42$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49015162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Natus Vincere34c726.72$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.9710252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked FURIA59c697.47$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked FURIA45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ee8…6c2ebacked FURIA65c649.17$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.961533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked FURIA62c645.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013460.4%81 W · 53 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78f8…a50bbacked Natus Vincere49c635.53$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+126.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed FURIA16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004052.5%21 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa429…792bbacked FURIA65c614.77$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.640%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked FURIA63c609.66$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.223450%17 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed FURIA66c609.56$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40032653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Natus Vincere76c601.01$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2415970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed FURIA50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed FURIA5c599.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32605%3 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.