TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof FURIA, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$640,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$688,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee00…cea1backed FURIA35c33,706$11,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,052.923355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FURIA38c25,952$9,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,051.013,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FURIA64c23,302$14,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,439.846345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere49c22,936$11,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,211.291,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked FURIA25c20,083$4,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,099.1227133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FURIA62c19,722$12,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,489.3383652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed FURIA27c14,225$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,390.2632425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked FURIA59c13,595$7,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,601.924858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA37c12,721$4,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,024.934,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed FURIA63c12,251$7,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,532.9145848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere31c12,040$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.9381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FURIA50c11,866$5,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,972.641,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere35c11,510$4,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.7444648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Natus Vincere70c10,193$7,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114.9631757.7%183 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA56c9,129$5,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,056.71,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FURIA66c8,207$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.4746949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Natus Vincere38c7,895$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed FURIA65c7,736$5,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.414862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed FURIA66c7,664$5,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.7823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e1…c852backed Natus Vincere57c7,474$4,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,232.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Natus Vincere37c7,302$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.8313050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Natus Vincere47c6,382$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.54763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb5…e30dbacked Natus Vincere38c6,000$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Natus Vincere37c5,725$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.2510549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Natus Vincere80c5,616$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,490.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere32c5,012$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.83,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed FURIA63c4,980$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.61770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe328…f4a3backed FURIA22c4,470$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.924037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c05…578fbacked FURIA62c3,693$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.452060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked FURIA64c3,555$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.4810450%52 W · 52 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca7…6040backed Natus Vincere56c3,508$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.99520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-72.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Natus Vincere36c3,432$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2505149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed FURIA67c3,234$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.337146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed FURIA78c3,171$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.591471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Natus Vincere14c3,159$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.0613532.6%44 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FURIA52c3,124$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.1175245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Natus Vincere34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006648.5%32 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Natus Vincere35c2,885$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe4…dbbcbacked Natus Vincere38c2,837$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.851250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Natus Vincere40c2,628$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.121055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed FURIA45c2,608$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.382458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Natus Vincere78c2,568$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008974.2%66 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Natus Vincere29c2,472$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed FURIA21c2,418$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.452853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdea3…e4babacked Natus Vincere55c2,416$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.551154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed FURIA31c2,397$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.933333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Natus Vincere70c2,354$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.9712153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked FURIA54c2,300$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0586347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed FURIA64c2,271$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.6624935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FURIA78c2,223$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.744957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed Natus Vincere68c2,142$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa090…9854backed Natus Vincere34c2,075$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007238.9%28 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FURIA20c2,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere61c2,000$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Natus Vincere61c1,862$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1408267.1%55 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Natus Vincere40c1,586$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Natus Vincere23c1,569$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.858038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed FURIA65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.462944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2f3…8cbdbacked Natus Vincere52c1,530$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Natus Vincere38c1,490$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.812661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked FURIA50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7433…c66cbacked FURIA44c1,354$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.822166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+50.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Natus Vincere74c1,293$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.375455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed FURIA63c1,192$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.1421051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed FURIA70c1,174$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.3315970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed FURIA32c1,173$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.7117538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere35c1,019$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.121,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Natus Vincere38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3803246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed FURIA57c1,000$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.1858961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked FURIA30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70024538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1952…5a39backed Natus Vincere36c959.69$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.491154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f7…e59bbacked FURIA53c951.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.415545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed FURIA66c934.32$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3226360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere55c909.82$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Natus Vincere66c904.94$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Natus Vincere50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked Natus Vincere34c871.18$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.29050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb1…0f73backed FURIA55c870$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked FURIA63c790$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.329235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd821…68d4backed Natus Vincere41c761.24$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.831442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed FURIA66c757.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.667955.7%44 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Natus Vincere67c749.98$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.999048.9%44 W · 46 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FURIA63c747.95$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.7498052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere26c736.38$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.941,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Natus Vincere43c726.71$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4992152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc861…63afbacked Natus Vincere69c721.1$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6acc…e6eebacked Natus Vincere11c700$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Natus Vincere54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37826251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Natus Vincere33c700$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2289037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Natus Vincere36c648$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2211353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed FURIA66c646.16$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3113461.9%83 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FURIA72c611.53$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.857647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere28c600$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16897230%292 W · 680 L-23.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed Natus Vincere3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18605%3 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed FURIA66c556.84$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.379160.4%55 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Natus Vincere57c538.1$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.435738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Natus Vincere38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005961%36 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed Natus Vincere17c525$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.