TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs MIBR LOS - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBR LOSof 100 Thieves, MIBR LOS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed MIBR LOS46c22,700$10,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,269.4224145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed 100 Thieves54c21,554$11,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,639.0734356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 100 Thieves39c17,907$6,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,977.8240945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked 100 Thieves60c12,321$7,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,385.986150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MIBR LOS40c9,752$3,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,849.512951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MIBR LOS61c9,265$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.4526650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked MIBR LOS44c6,828$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.071330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 100 Thieves37c4,940$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8121,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked 100 Thieves59c2,548$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.750944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MIBR LOS57c2,215$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.0356357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked MIBR LOS45c2,188$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.5610346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MIBR LOS55c2,153$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.651,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MIBR LOS43c1,947$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.8365559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MIBR LOS52c1,707$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.161,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…4d0dbacked MIBR LOS46c1,608$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked MIBR LOS40c1,538$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.82835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked MIBR LOS51c1,500$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7304751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MIBR LOS50c1,443$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked 100 Thieves55c1,443$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.5625444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MIBR LOS71c1,388$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9894361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed 100 Thieves44c1,384$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.473537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 100 Thieves59c1,230$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.8914938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738b…7579backed 100 Thieves47c1,054$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002763%17 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed 100 Thieves47c1,001$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46915358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked 100 Thieves60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MIBR LOS55c987.93$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed MIBR LOS40c910.38$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.226755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked 100 Thieves55c899.99$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49521055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MIBR LOS40c880$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.617349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 100 Thieves40c764.01$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0293049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked MIBR LOS40c724$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.42454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed MIBR LOS42c716.16$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.0251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked 100 Thieves58c670.48$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.889151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MIBR LOS38c634.6$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.8693148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked MIBR LOS40c629$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+43.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed MIBR LOS58c584.59$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.826648.5%32 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed 100 Thieves55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed 100 Thieves55c536.35$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.994843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 100 Thieves47c529.34$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.541,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 100 Thieves44c522.55$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9870043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed 100 Thieves56c513.75$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.754751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 100 Thieves40c510$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20488844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves47c477.81$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.421,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb5…98f8backed 100 Thieves57c440.46$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked 100 Thieves58c420.55$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.812650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed MIBR LOS41c419.51$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed 100 Thieves28c407.07$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3160022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked 100 Thieves53c406.91$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed 100 Thieves62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2481369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked 100 Thieves54c399.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.913661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 100 Thieves60c357.04$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1474642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc6…1886backed 100 Thieves41c334.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked 100 Thieves43c327.68$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9384838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked MIBR LOS51c321.9$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0631227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed MIBR LOS41c320$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18836145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed MIBR LOS41c299.65$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.791030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed 100 Thieves61c287.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.673737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed MIBR LOS45c287$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1523836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed MIBR LOS61c275.35$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4733838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MIBR LOS39c275.17$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8519240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260f…6980backed MIBR LOS26c268$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.485532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44b…4048backed 100 Thieves39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+34.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked 100 Thieves54c249.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9936648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed 100 Thieves53c244.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.429838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b3…5bd5backed MIBR LOS44c242.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed 100 Thieves58c234.26$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8727956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 100 Thieves57c218.43$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6577744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed MIBR LOS73c213.23$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2328151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked 100 Thieves24c210.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf4f…0bf2backed MIBR LOS46c207.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed 100 Thieves45c201.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked MIBR LOS26c200.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.514653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked 100 Thieves58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1163164.5%20 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+67.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed MIBR LOS40c194.78$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8718948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked MIBR LOS45c189.94$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.311,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked MIBR LOS69c188.41$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4112856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked 100 Thieves79c185.76$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.932955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MIBR LOS49c180.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.81,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed MIBR LOS46c173.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.911850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba46…6ac5backed 100 Thieves60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004768.1%32 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x333b…62dabacked 100 Thieves46c163.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked MIBR LOS66c158$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6623644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed 100 Thieves46c149.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1365347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e83…81d1backed 100 Thieves55c146.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked 100 Thieves49c140$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.616241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed 100 Thieves48c137.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4440944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 100 Thieves38c135$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed MIBR LOS39c130.26$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.465048%24 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2261…ffd1backed 100 Thieves78c127.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3561…b0e7backed 100 Thieves48c125.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed 100 Thieves34c124.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424546.7%21 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce61…a87fbacked 100 Thieves59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.85158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed MIBR LOS40c115$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6914852.7%78 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MIBR LOS37c112.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8531153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked 100 Thieves67c111.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5812862.5%80 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-10.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked MIBR LOS55c108.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5690733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked 100 Thieves38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.925141.4%104 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MIBR LOS39c99.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked 100 Thieves60c99.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9913043.8%57 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff95…859cbacked 100 Thieves61c99.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4412056.7%68 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.