Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309a4046c926f26061cbbdb73a23deb2632177399743c980743b76f5eea3bfb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,222$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 936.39$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 579.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 54c | 455.01$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 337.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 321.38$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 276$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 273.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 49c | 244$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 223.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 61c | 219.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 208.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 208.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 206.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 176$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 169.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 167.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 146.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 131.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 131.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 77c | 105.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 105.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 104.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 100.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 98.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 98.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 93.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 17c | 90.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 43c | 90.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 88.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 84.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 83.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 82.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 80.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 80.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 72.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 66.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 29c | 64.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 50c | 63.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 49c | 62.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 44c | 62.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 54.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 44c | 53.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 51.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 50.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 50.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 44.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 49c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 41.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 70c | 41.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 49c | 38.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 47c | 35.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 35.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 34c | 34.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 33.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 64c | 33.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 32.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 53c | 31.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 31.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 52c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 47c | 28.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked No | 53c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed Yes | 49c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 20.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.