TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Manchester Super Giantsof London Spirit, Manchester Super Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$480,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$482,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9441…98babacked Manchester Super Giants41c75,000$30,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,251.911513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa69b…7b0cbacked Manchester Super Giants45c29,990$13,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,601.2722552.4%118 W · 107 L+20.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Manchester Super Giants47c24,116$11,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,846.056524.6%16 W · 49 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked London Spirit40c22,005$8,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,910.0515935.2%56 W · 103 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b7…6008backed London Spirit46c20,789$9,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,630.0133340.2%134 W · 199 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e02…d70abacked London Spirit58c18,409$10,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,659.0936445.6%166 W · 198 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Manchester Super Giants44c16,027$7,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,978.3350547.5%240 W · 265 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ad…31e6backed London Spirit49c12,976$6,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,405.0212158.7%71 W · 50 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed London Spirit56c11,261$6,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,268.5231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7e…f896backed London Spirit46c10,603$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.761838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…1686backed London Spirit59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90018923.8%45 W · 144 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Manchester Super Giants49c5,013$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.6743840.9%179 W · 259 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Manchester Super Giants60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0008652.3%45 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9104…c269backed London Spirit58c4,895$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.4214070.7%99 W · 41 L+21.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1599…a8b6backed London Spirit50c4,387$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.6732337.2%120 W · 203 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7a…9e24backed London Spirit58c3,978$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.142445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Manchester Super Giants53c3,884$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.711450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Manchester Super Giants46c3,417$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.948742.5%37 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+209.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Manchester Super Giants52c2,806$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.185925.4%15 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Manchester Super Giants50c2,451$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.4956937.1%211 W · 358 L-2.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5986…73dcbacked London Spirit53c2,276$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.69860.2%59 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0389…847bbacked London Spirit58c2,105$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.2815558.1%90 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Manchester Super Giants49c1,780$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.6910763.6%68 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked London Spirit53c1,640$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.1964143.1%276 W · 365 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d1…7d7dbacked Manchester Super Giants52c1,475$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.3132846.3%152 W · 176 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0646…ad17backed London Spirit6c1,454$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2332415.7%51 W · 273 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Manchester Super Giants49c1,235$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.8718642.5%79 W · 107 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8806…d9f1backed London Spirit40c1,216$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.557719.5%15 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed London Spirit53c1,187$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.735646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked London Spirit50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50049247.2%232 W · 260 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed London Spirit50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50045647.6%217 W · 239 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52c1…d61fbacked Manchester Super Giants57c902.97$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.976947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9065…3275backed Manchester Super Giants60c798.5$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.5312759.1%75 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Manchester Super Giants46c755.05$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.7515966%105 W · 54 L+16.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35f7…365fbacked London Spirit41c740$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Manchester Super Giants47c650$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.516345.4%74 W · 89 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557d…5c88backed Manchester Super Giants53c620.9$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.91637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb4…89b0backed Manchester Super Giants43c604.78$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.583928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5276…800dbacked Manchester Super Giants78c571.88$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.824226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Manchester Super Giants48c558.66$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.742347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…d3b2backed London Spirit39c529.32$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4317535.4%62 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed London Spirit61c525.71$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1719862.6%124 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b5…296bbacked London Spirit58c517.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002123.8%5 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-66.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd41a…aa9fbacked Manchester Super Giants52c511.54$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.541921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Manchester Super Giants47c507.01$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.25034%17 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked London Spirit59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29563646.4%295 W · 341 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d3…6b98backed London Spirit54c489.24$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.281637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Manchester Super Giants49c433.06$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.642725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Manchester Super Giants52c432.56$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6f…1c42backed London Spirit46c420.66$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.471136.2%7 W · 106 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb480…92b9backed London Spirit44c400$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+426.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Manchester Super Giants49c394$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1331940.1%128 W · 191 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed London Spirit53c369.82$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed London Spirit49c366.13$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.565549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…a690backed Manchester Super Giants48c359.33$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.85450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…fdb6backed Manchester Super Giants56c350.36$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.164436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c43…5c88backed Manchester Super Giants49c330$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.74860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d22…b754backed Manchester Super Giants43c299.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1704736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed London Spirit54c285.03$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8912343.9%54 W · 69 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked London Spirit62c279.03$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17311659.5%69 W · 47 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed London Spirit40c278.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1615544.5%69 W · 86 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e12…d0ecbacked London Spirit6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513418.7%25 W · 109 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+106.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Manchester Super Giants67c245$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1318052.8%95 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Manchester Super Giants55c238.54$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.226130.7%80 W · 181 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa93c…16f3backed London Spirit43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003860.5%23 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+50.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Manchester Super Giants45c227.46$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1927054.4%147 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7275…8b45backed London Spirit45c224.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Manchester Super Giants66c220$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.847061.5%289 W · 181 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3627…09f2backed Manchester Super Giants48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.335935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5b…e7d8backed London Spirit37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked London Spirit45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab4…077fbacked London Spirit46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f8…ed4ebacked Manchester Super Giants49c199.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Manchester Super Giants61c175.64$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.510770.1%75 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed Manchester Super Giants48c166.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9220…c73fbacked London Spirit54c166.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4d…066dbacked Manchester Super Giants49c153.42$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2222647.3%107 W · 119 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe5…365cbacked London Spirit53c149.06$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5e…54b0backed London Spirit38c141.71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.183438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked London Spirit52c135.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.433119.4%6 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-49.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked London Spirit52c130.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.044652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed London Spirit34c127.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4310316.5%17 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c2…e8bcbacked London Spirit62c113.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked Manchester Super Giants40c110$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.22055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf985…d744backed London Spirit50c108.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked London Spirit59c107.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.54825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a57…913fbacked London Spirit51c107$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9429051.7%150 W · 140 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed London Spirit53c100.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.277847.4%37 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c7…b914backed London Spirit59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597356.2%41 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…3003backed Manchester Super Giants45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5513752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eb5…73b8backed London Spirit60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ff…879cbacked London Spirit51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6e…445abacked London Spirit32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3b…07c9backed London Spirit52c98.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f80…2bbcbacked London Spirit64c97.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c79…78b1backed Manchester Super Giants48c91.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.882347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed London Spirit54c91.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9941947.5%199 W · 220 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a99…40d8backed Manchester Super Giants66c90.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0911054.5%60 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5817…987dbacked London Spirit54c90.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8217943.6%78 W · 101 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x677e…5072backed London Spirit56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019956.3%112 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.