TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof OG, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$289,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Natus Vincere52c55,264$28,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,640.9714840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked OG48c41,647$19,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,990.5319847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed OG50c33,000$16,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,573.4733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…4dd1backed Natus Vincere65c22,873$14,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,083.832556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Natus Vincere50c21,111$10,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,555.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked OG28c14,593$4,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,136.599245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere51c9,657$4,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.6755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Natus Vincere34c5,271$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,482.485149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed OG48c5,222$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG51c4,798$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.481,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere66c4,110$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed OG48c3,840$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.9354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere49c3,837$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.671,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed OG37c3,113$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.877149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Natus Vincere45c3,110$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.756647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG54c2,735$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.022,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed OG44c2,279$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4333644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953c…1aacbacked Natus Vincere35c1,968$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed OG53c1,832$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.6619242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed OG55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99011547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Natus Vincere68c1,484$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.6921062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed OG55c1,474$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.716050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed OG53c1,322$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007944.3%35 W · 44 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed OG49c1,119$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.8856848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2905…6255backed Natus Vincere46c1,093$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.283360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked OG28c1,072$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30099844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OG53c1,050$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.21,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked OG41c1,050$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.52763%17 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed OG26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26011346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked OG17c1,000$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16738049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e88…5ddabacked OG56c978.91$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.947562.7%47 W · 28 L+11.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked OG48c955.89$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.331,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere72c920.45$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.911,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked OG52c900$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4681233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed OG57c877.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50047660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed OG10c865.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4226661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Natus Vincere43c823.82$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.589345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x380c…951cbacked OG70c771.26$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.034973.5%36 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG48c763.28$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.862,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Natus Vincere49c757.85$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.6715047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere26c700$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.1740014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Natus Vincere72c691.31$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3116160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed OG56c628.39$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.251942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere44c583.83$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9464744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked OG21c581.01$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0579341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f8…6ef8backed OG28c540.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere48c515.59$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1136054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere41c503.27$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9346535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed OG21c500$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed OG56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed OG58c499.03$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28926957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked OG78c474.41$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.6339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked OG48c454$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.674736.2%17 W · 30 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere35c390.88$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.833850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed OG52c385.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Natus Vincere44c375.9$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.93941%16 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere48c316.23$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.011,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed Natus Vincere66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Natus Vincere51c299.28$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8511052.7%58 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed OG67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed OG34c284$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1216835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed OG48c273.68$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.375843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked OG58c272.51$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…c5adbacked OG45c263.54$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.381711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Natus Vincere50c253.52$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7211348.7%55 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ac…7e1fbacked OG55c233.38$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.729836.7%36 W · 62 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1976…e363backed OG52c229.36$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.625646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed OG28c229.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3813827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed OG61c226.29$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7318143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f7…63c3backed OG23c218.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked OG79c215.97$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.526460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x275f…39d9backed OG17c215.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.913423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Natus Vincere45c214.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4862650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Natus Vincere73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe175…7d48backed OG50c199.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere56c199.14$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.234063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed OG34c194.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.514940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Natus Vincere26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.315450%27 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+34.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed OG55c190$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.59548.4%46 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere46c179.74$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7441248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d80…7a4bbacked Natus Vincere45c163.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.943745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Natus Vincere47c163$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.137665.8%50 W · 26 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked OG49c151.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4958152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a9…0544backed OG33c144.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere53c136.21$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.022951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764e…4987backed OG66c132.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.253757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked OG55c128.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.761,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd7…6c52backed Natus Vincere46c125$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.758934.8%31 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed OG48c120.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.383351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Natus Vincere41c120.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7112843.8%56 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Natus Vincere39c120.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.213743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed70…4f63backed Natus Vincere63c111.68$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.854045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed OG38c107.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7279343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a5…2caebacked Natus Vincere40c106.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.672737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7bb…0fd6backed OG53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Natus Vincere40c98.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.948833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9147…baccbacked OG48c93.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Natus Vincere47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1159556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fad…eee9backed OG56c84.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.