Earnings · resolved market
Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3feaa00b195d8d77c9e54e5feb64ae90d68d36dded2da07e30ed5a72e2bbf51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 5c | 2,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed No | 44c | 509$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 30c | 484.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked Yes | 54c | 475$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 299.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked No | 45c | 292$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 32c | 274.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 53c | 240.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Yes | 55c | 196$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 48c | 191.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed Yes | 55c | 164$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 26c | 163.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 30c | 150.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…2937backed Yes | 68c | 141$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 73c | 136.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 77c | 135.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked No | 45c | 123$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…4574backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 87.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed Yes | 72c | 75.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked Yes | 46c | 72.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 69c | 72.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 47c | 63.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…61f1backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 32c | 63.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 59.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 44c | 56.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…2d55backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…ddd5backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 73c | 48.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 59c | 46.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…3954backed Yes | 70c | 38.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 43c | 37.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 55c | 32.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ef14backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 60c | 26.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 63c | 23.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.