NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Penguins vs. Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4590bcf38b1f2c4c8af6ca07c698f3e400e141d415793ca91e09ec0a5c698a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Penguins, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Flyers | 79c | 52,750$41,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,077.59 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…b215backed Penguins | 21c | 46,740$9,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,815.43 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Penguins | 13c | 13,367$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.71 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa690…c541backed Penguins | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Penguins | 24c | 6,706$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.86 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 12c | 6,550$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.43 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Penguins | 13c | 5,092$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.49 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Penguins | 14c | 4,934$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.01 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Penguins | 20c | 2,143$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.48 | 198 | 36.9%73 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Flyers | 69c | 2,092$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.6 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Flyers | 60c | 1,548$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.27 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Penguins | 41c | 1,176$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Penguins | 7c | 1,106$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Penguins | 18c | 916.89$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…1334backed Penguins | 14c | 677.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fe…9fe1backed Penguins | 6c | 658.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Flyers | 60c | 536.78$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.01 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Penguins | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Penguins | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…a473backed Penguins | 7c | 363.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Penguins | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…4d85backed Penguins | 17c | 273.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Penguins | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Penguins | 7c | 242.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…d9c8backed Penguins | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…6451backed Penguins | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Penguins | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…bdbcbacked Flyers | 75c | 199$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Penguins | 27c | 175.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Penguins | 8c | 163.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 437 | 42.3%185 W · 252 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Penguins | 28c | 147.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Penguins | 25c | 143.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Flyers | 43c | 116.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…6df9backed Penguins | 14c | 114.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Penguins | 28c | 108.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Penguins | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…88c7backed Penguins | 17c | 86.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…f226backed Penguins | 14c | 80.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Penguins | 15c | 78.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Flyers | 78c | 74.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…f2d3backed Penguins | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…e2a2backed Flyers | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b507backed Penguins | 23c | 65.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…a891backed Penguins | 21c | 64.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Penguins | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…8ee4backed Penguins | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…7855backed Flyers | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…6635backed Penguins | 39c | 48.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Flyers | 61c | 48.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Penguins | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Flyers | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…d090backed Penguins | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Penguins | 25c | 41.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Penguins | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Flyers | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Penguins | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Flyers | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ae22backed Flyers | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Flyers | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Flyers | 72c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Flyers | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.