Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d841fd8a8fb8403c450dd85f3078e9136f25809b059c21a3c0e710b2192c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Over | 26c | 19,900$5,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,174.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 15,289$10,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.35 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 2,800$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.91 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 42c | 1,350$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.85 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 27c | 1,131$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…0beebacked Over | 39c | 1,106$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.79 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 74c | 984.98$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.09 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 26c | 836$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 23c | 826.01$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 77c | 783.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 45c | 781$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.96 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 68c | 702.22$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.71 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Under | 28c | 594$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.68 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 45c | 422.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 26c | 382$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Under | 29c | 346.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 55c | 317.11$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 60c | 308.33$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 51c | 245.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 220.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Under | 31c | 196.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 252 | 25%63 W · 189 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…f730backed Over | 30c | 180.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Over | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 63c | 158.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…ffb4backed Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 24c | 141.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…e62fbacked Over | 26c | 136.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 50c | 124.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…722bbacked Over | 41c | 121.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 21c | 119.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 18c | 119$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Over | 60c | 109.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267f…9ce8backed Under | 72c | 108.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Over | 40c | 100.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 52c | 96.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 42c | 87.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked Over | 20c | 80.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…6322backed Under | 42c | 71.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…f4b0backed Under | 76c | 64.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…651cbacked Over | 49c | 52.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 60c | 45.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 42.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…f67dbacked Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…5860backed Under | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 72c | 32.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 32.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 74c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 51c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 77c | 29.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 255 | 53.7%137 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…25aebacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 74c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…cecdbacked Over | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.