Other European Leagues · resolved market

CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469dfbb303c1db95ecb8d29127d385f8745bc138d45f773c559a244d23776d4f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,684 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x122b…ac59backed Under	1c	4,865$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	35c	4,000$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600	142	17.6%25 W · 117 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eef…83aabacked Over	43c	3,922$1,687 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,235.8	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	65c	3,613$2,351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,351.15	2,001	36.5%730 W · 1,271 L	-25.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	63c	2,376$1,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,501.65	5,604	42%2,356 W · 3,248 L	+75.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	2,201$1,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.37	7,889	45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L	+11.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8944…da4bbacked Under	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Under	3c	1,168$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…ea34backed Over	48c	989.21$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.39	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Under	2c	928.36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-45%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under	7c	908.88$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.57	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0de8…6cf3backed Over	55c	557.76$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.46	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Under	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	60	63.3%38 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Over	40c	500$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over	46c	482.15$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.36	63	42.9%27 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Under	65c	435.89$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.33	183	44.3%81 W · 102 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under	66c	427.18$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.94	1,434	37.7%540 W · 894 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed Over	39c	393.77$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.2	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Under	65c	384.61$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…8445backed Over	51c	377.36$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.91	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under	65c	317$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.05	324	36.4%118 W · 206 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	50c	300.35$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.05	2,309	42.8%988 W · 1,321 L	-41.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Over	77c	238.96$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.96	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-7.1wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over	27c	227.07$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.76	90	30%27 W · 63 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over	35c	216.86$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.96	143	32.2%46 W · 97 L	-12.9wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29d2…7babbacked Over	40c	200$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	+7.0wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	+74.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Over	27c	200$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	24cpaid	+87%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Under	65c	188.23$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.4	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-4.9wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Over	35c	159.71$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.81	33	75.8%25 W · 8 L	+9.1wins	+0.28per pick	48cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8987…44d6backed Under	58c	154.26$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.47	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under	23c	152$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe707…e0cfbacked Under	66c	150$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	46c	138.22$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.32	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-7.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Over	39c	128.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.21	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	56c	114.18$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.44	322	57.8%186 W · 136 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under	49c	110.29$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.16	305	50.8%155 W · 150 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	56c	104.58$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.03	559	54.9%307 W · 252 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Under	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.78	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	187	56.1%105 W · 82 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under	65c	98.04$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.73	280	49.6%139 W · 141 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ca…ac4cbacked Under	51c	94.91$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.35	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	48.4%91 W · 97 L	+13.4wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	70c	80.25$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	248	51.6%128 W · 120 L	+8.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x460c…b5b5backed Under	56c	70.33$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.26	75	64%48 W · 27 L	+6.3wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	65c	70.12$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.58	398	52.5%209 W · 189 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under	60c	56.68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.87	275	54.9%151 W · 124 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	50c	56.54$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.28	233	47.2%110 W · 123 L	-8.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over	45c	54.52$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.2	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Under	26c	50.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-58%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	338	53.3%180 W · 158 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308b…b223backed Over	47c	48.94$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.94	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under	58c	46.87$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	339	59%200 W · 139 L	+18.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	30c	46.29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.3	460	44.3%204 W · 256 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under	47c	44.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3622…083dbacked Over	39c	43.1$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5d…9bdcbacked Under	65c	42.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	15	93.3%14 W · 1 L	+5.2wins	+0.34per pick	59cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	72c	39.6$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.09	715	33.8%242 W · 473 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over	32c	35.21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.01	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+5.1wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	41c	35.15$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.74	110	22.7%25 W · 85 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca42…a02abacked Under	49c	34.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under	56c	32$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	297	54.5%162 W · 135 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	57c	29.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	351	63.5%223 W · 128 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	49c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	49c	24.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	437	21.7%95 W · 342 L	-49.3wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x590d…572dbacked Under	53c	24.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	60%21 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under	65c	19.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under	57c	17.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	99	68.7%68 W · 31 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Over	66c	17.35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.9	91	69.2%63 W · 28 L	+10.6wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+18%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under	64c	16.96$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0deb…d175backed Under	70c	14.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	77cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5this page
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: CF Estrela da Amadora 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 0.5Over won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Under won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)Sporting CP won
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event