Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46f515128f9e7d2223ac7867eaa94b8662874cdb59b4c98526fe528d6a675bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb809…2004backed Under | 32c | 8,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.98 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 68c | 5,908$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.36 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 67c | 3,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 34c | 2,301$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.32 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 2,272$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.02 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 10c | 2,014$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.05 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 1,668$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.98 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 1,187$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.83 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 26c | 830$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.74 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 34c | 772.26$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.57 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 33c | 487.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 474.62$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 461.93$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 67c | 345.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 15c | 323.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 40.2%94 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…77dcbacked Under | 39c | 311.88$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 282 | 58.2%164 W · 118 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 162 | 40.1%65 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 67c | 299.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 12c | 286.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 30c | 257.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 33c | 229.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 36c | 216$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 65c | 198.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 68c | 191.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 122 | 41%50 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 65c | 165.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 35c | 146.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 63c | 133.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…d1aabacked Under | 29c | 104.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 68c | 102.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Under | 36c | 101.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf064…54a4backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…2777backed Over | 68c | 83.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 27c | 77.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…a812backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…ffd7backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Under | 22c | 69.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 28c | 68.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,141 | 46.2%527 W · 614 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 33c | 64.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 28c | 62.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 34c | 59.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 37c | 49.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…82b1backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 79c | 44.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…e5d8backed Under | 36c | 43.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Over | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 184 | 65.8%121 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 65c | 31.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…bb12backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…4103backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…732dbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 66cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 61c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…2cf7backed Over | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…683fbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…8493backed Over | 68c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 75c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 66c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Over | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Over | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 65c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe32…0300backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…3ee1backed Over | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)United States won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Germany won
- United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Under won
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Under won
- United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.