United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c777fc15f8ff41d77d513b30ee9bd3b675a41e9f66ce76ac46fc6e56896249

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd3fd…dbc5backed Over	24c	7,221$1,733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,732.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…66cbbacked Under	76c	4,967$3,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,192.01	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	73c	3,404$2,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$921.7	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	18c	3,111$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.32	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	73c	2,892$2,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$788.69	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under	77c	2,633$2,023 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610	445	39.6%176 W · 269 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Over	28c	2,534$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabc2…fd47backed Under	76c	2,383$1,811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.88	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	76cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over	39c	1,613$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.54	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a2b…57dcbacked Under	74c	1,348$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.79	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	27c	1,102$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.28	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	59c	1,080$642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$437.94	292	32.9%96 W · 196 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Over	1c	1,037$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	515	14.2%73 W · 442 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over	28c	999.99$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	133	51.1%68 W · 65 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	27c	739.72$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.72	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	31c	630.72$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.58	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	36c	600$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-6.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	24c	499.86$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.97	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	73c	486.83$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.84	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc076…d987backed Under	79c	420$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.97	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Over	28c	406.14$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.72	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…45d1backed Over	27c	400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	127	24.4%31 W · 96 L	-10.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	25c	297.65$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.45	343	30%103 W · 240 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over	25c	257.37$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.01	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Under	72c	255.55$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.55	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over	19c	250$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	238	20.6%49 W · 189 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	44c	249.51$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.67	107	40.2%43 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	58c	243$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.49	172	55.2%95 W · 77 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	25c	242.52$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	257	27.2%70 W · 187 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	76c	215.86$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.41	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	73c	200.08$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.02	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	71c	193.57$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.14	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23bd…12ccbacked Over	27c	186.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.37	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	19.4%14 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	35.8%29 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4a…044ebacked Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4de…846bbacked Under	66c	150$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	32	71.9%23 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	73cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39e9…e2dfbacked Under	57c	150$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.5	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over	25c	144.4$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	43c	138$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	289	64.4%186 W · 103 L	+42.6wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Under	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	19c	125.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.86	83	38.6%32 W · 51 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	77c	125.28$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.81	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	73c	118.57$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.52	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	73c	111$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.97	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	24c	105.29$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over	25c	100.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	205	60%123 W · 82 L	+17.0wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Over	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	72	59.7%43 W · 29 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1354…19f7backed Over	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under	72c	94$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	76c	93.19$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.94	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	26c	87.79$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	363	29.8%108 W · 255 L	-17.4wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.75	122	52.5%64 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cfc…ab38backed Over	43c	77.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	28c	75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	75c	66.16$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.3	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under	75c	64.13$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.88	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	27c	60$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-17.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	46c	54.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	129	53.5%69 W · 60 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under	67c	50.46$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.89	508	33.3%169 W · 339 L	-35.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Under	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b4e…12aebacked Over	35c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	112	38.4%43 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc220…5012backed Over	28c	49.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	296	36.1%107 W · 189 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	27c	48.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Under	72c	43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over	46c	42.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	315	54.6%172 W · 143 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f20…3a2abacked Under	80c	39.3$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.86	57	64.9%37 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x42e7…d4ccbacked Under	74c	37.95$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.95	119	65.5%78 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	68cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over	32c	35.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	465	62.2%289 W · 176 L	+42.0wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under	76c	32.19$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.82	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under	76c	25.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	167	58.7%98 W · 69 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under	61c	24.72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	117	49.6%58 W · 59 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under	57c	24.38$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.6	218	58.7%128 W · 90 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Under	53c	23.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.94	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb4…f3a4backed Under	72c	19.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.43	59	76.3%45 W · 14 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Under	76c	18.14$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.42	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Under	74c	17.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.51	187	64.2%120 W · 67 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under	76c	15.97$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.89	360	45.3%163 W · 197 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5this page
Spread: Germany (-1.5)United States won
Spread: Germany (-2.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)Germany won
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
United States vs. Germany: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Under won
United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event