TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

League of Legends: Dplus KIA vs. BNK FEARX

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof Dplus KIA, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb083…b3f0backed BNK FEARX41c54,397$22,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,288.2936433.8%123 W · 241 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb37c…164ebacked Dplus KIA77c41,690$32,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,101.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf137…a557backed BNK FEARX23c33,863$7,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,074.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Dplus KIA76c12,850$9,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,753.3511452.6%60 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Dplus KIA31c12,065$3,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,698.575435.2%19 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Dplus KIA56c11,341$6,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,350.649020%18 W · 72 L-13.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked BNK FEARX23c10,561$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,081.4932350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX43c9,086$3,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,143.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed BNK FEARX36c8,705$3,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,539.241,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b0…be26backed BNK FEARX40c8,506$3,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,103.542268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Dplus KIA46c7,733$3,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,521.7218340.4%74 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Dplus KIA41c6,557$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.4711434.2%39 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Dplus KIA70c6,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20023447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Dplus KIA76c4,755$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,613.9854353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Dplus KIA56c4,566$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.4363546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Dplus KIA60c4,317$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.9427346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed BNK FEARX24c4,223$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,206.531036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Dplus KIA46c3,742$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.321,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Dplus KIA36c3,640$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.323547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Dplus KIA44c3,377$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.4411548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4006…9f86backed Dplus KIA58c3,299$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.238356.6%47 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba0…3d98backed Dplus KIA76c3,298$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004858.3%28 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed Dplus KIA5c3,279$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3817410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed BNK FEARX33c3,200$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.9966947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BNK FEARX70c3,110$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.141,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed BNK FEARX23c2,860$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.481,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Dplus KIA65c2,856$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.2728746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed BNK FEARX54c2,757$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.84042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Dplus KIA76c2,729$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.292965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabdf…e8e4backed Dplus KIA72c2,643$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.816566.2%43 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed BNK FEARX27c2,593$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.583265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Dplus KIA54c2,587$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.510048%48 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX22c2,421$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.162,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Dplus KIA48c2,300$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10013260.6%80 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Dplus KIA56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1203145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed BNK FEARX48c1,856$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.1923657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Dplus KIA78c1,770$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.63148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Dplus KIA63c1,382$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86513960.4%84 W · 55 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3545…741dbacked Dplus KIA73c1,296$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Dplus KIA42c1,218$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.848448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed BNK FEARX25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75012143%52 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Dplus KIA37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37035431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed BNK FEARX45c903.72$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.5941743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf69…b3ffbacked Dplus KIA55c868.98$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.943770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Dplus KIA54c845.86$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.454252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf8…5d1dbacked BNK FEARX61c821.72$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.724562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed BNK FEARX25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6007346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Dplus KIA76c800$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60843539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf77c…f31ebacked Dplus KIA56c761.95$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed BNK FEARX52c727.34$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3925269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed BNK FEARX48c707.02$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5730243%130 W · 172 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Dplus KIA73c700$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51179653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Dplus KIA76c697.35$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9953954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2729…e171backed BNK FEARX46c675$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Dplus KIA38c657.89$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Dplus KIA53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31838837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed BNK FEARX25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4509337.6%35 W · 58 L+12.5wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+92.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked BNK FEARX24c600$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.210934.9%38 W · 71 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Dplus KIA34c571.43$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2513747.4%65 W · 72 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Dplus KIA74c545$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1543348.7%211 W · 222 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Dplus KIA79c537.96$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.413630.6%11 W · 25 L-7.5wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-49.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed BNK FEARX50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2508769%60 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c7e…3748backed Dplus KIA75c496.51$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Dplus KIA13c494.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.859430.9%29 W · 65 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Dplus KIA76c487.24$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.312360.2%74 W · 49 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked BNK FEARX22c463.65$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb85d…49eabacked Dplus KIA78c463.65$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.651833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed BNK FEARX63c442.78$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8315551.6%80 W · 75 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Dplus KIA40c430.97$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.671,13663.1%717 W · 419 L+51.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5a…b7aabacked Dplus KIA70c430$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfcf…a26ebacked Dplus KIA39c425.65$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9836331.1%113 W · 250 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed BNK FEARX25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30025752.1%134 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…29aebacked Dplus KIA46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.53863.2%24 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Dplus KIA58c360.34$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06c6…9bc5backed BNK FEARX64c352.01$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7211656%65 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf158…cc32backed Dplus KIA66c300$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1994047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed BNK FEARX60c300$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1219047.8%43 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked BNK FEARX61c292.54$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.47560%45 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Dplus KIA76c290$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.42157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked Dplus KIA51c290$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9324570.6%173 W · 72 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed BNK FEARX22c285$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.494134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66a…9157backed BNK FEARX32c282.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.528632.6%28 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Dplus KIA77c278$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.111,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed Dplus KIA76c263.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11dd…1bafbacked Dplus KIA76c263.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Dplus KIA57c260$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.756540%26 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f47…1f3ebacked BNK FEARX64c254.27$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.652055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed BNK FEARX24c250$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19048852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8548…e4c1backed Dplus KIA59c239.47$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416558.5%38 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+136.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Dplus KIA71c235.46$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.793661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed BNK FEARX24c208$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0810228.4%29 W · 73 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Dplus KIA78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15617561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Dplus KIA76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed BNK FEARX25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x208f…1050backed BNK FEARX50c197.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb909…d559backed Dplus KIA77c181.91$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0729643.6%129 W · 167 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Dplus KIA77c176.36$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.81,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed5…5b04backed Dplus KIA63c167.77$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055054%27 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Dplus KIA61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015370.6%108 W · 45 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Dplus KIA58c160.62$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4521549.3%106 W · 109 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.