Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48dbd0ca63061fb1e953d8eadd434baf8393e17099921dec21add47de1c22c82

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $156,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $168,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,782 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3e76…37acbacked Yes	0c	10,362$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Yes	5c	10,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes	4c	7,000$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298	236	22%52 W · 184 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	8c	6,748$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.08	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes	4c	5,010$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.48	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes	15c	4,800$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.81	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes	20c	4,378$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.74	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd46e…904abacked Yes	2c	2,890$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes	17c	2,723$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.2	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes	2c	2,500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.78	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes	10c	2,193$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.79	293	43%126 W · 167 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes	4c	2,050$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Yes	6c	2,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes	7c	1,924$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.07	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	5c	1,876$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	300	31%93 W · 207 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f2…f486backed Yes	5c	1,646$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.99	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+156.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f47…0043backed Yes	11c	1,502$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes	4c	1,363$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	80c	1,308$1,042 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.7	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Yes	15c	1,057$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	224	21%47 W · 177 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed Yes	6c	999.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.71	210	16.7%35 W · 175 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes	3c	900.44$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	96	33.3%32 W · 64 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	5c	880$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.48	186	41.4%77 W · 109 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	3c	861.44$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Yes	5c	791.38$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No	77c	784.2$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	15c	687.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6896…3682backed Yes	15c	672.01$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.28	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe220…0aaebacked Yes	22c	631.99$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	21c	626.3$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.9	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd2…b035backed Yes	3c	620.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes	17c	603.07$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.48	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes	5c	554.26$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes	15c	523.61$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.02	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…3e38backed Yes	11c	519.6$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.59	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes	5c	510.76$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.03	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc761…de5bbacked Yes	5c	490.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9423…bba6backed Yes	3c	480$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b92…0c9fbacked Yes	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes	5c	408.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	17%19 W · 93 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes	4c	407.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	132	35.6%47 W · 85 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e43…6170backed Yes	15c	402.73$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	60cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed No	77c	390.12$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.12	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+18%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes	5c	374.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Yes	24c	348.4$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	5c	346.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	237	38.8%92 W · 145 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…89e4backed Yes	5c	346.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7580…e48fbacked Yes	6c	336.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Yes	9c	332.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	78	50%39 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	24c	312.98$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9088…351ebacked Yes	7c	304.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf485…d672backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes	5c	278$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	789	27.5%217 W · 572 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcace…f2f6backed Yes	24c	271.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-49%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes	13c	270.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+6.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	5c	244$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Yes	24c	208.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b9…3390backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d8…11babacked Yes	23c	184.21$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…fe31backed Yes	14c	143.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb56a…a485backed Yes	20c	139.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea7b…5b6dbacked Yes	15c	136.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed No	77c	130.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.21	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x367e…8d39backed Yes	9c	130$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2599…9218backed No	78c	128.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb0…d24fbacked Yes	16c	126.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc13f…c93bbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-68%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9690…8bfabacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed No	79c	90.82$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.08	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	71cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Yes	15c	89.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…bf02backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d6…9d27backed Yes	24c	82.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No	77c	80.3$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.63	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d3…fc42backed Yes	16c	72.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.28per pick	43cpaid	+128%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac37…55e2backed Yes	20c	69.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked No	78c	64.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	96	67.7%65 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf493…f4f6backed Yes	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes	24c	47.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	195	40%78 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf6…9767backed No	76c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d3…5ee5backed No	76c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.56	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-6.0wins	-0.21per pick	65cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15?this page
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15?No won
Will Kazakhstan vs. Belgium end in a draw?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event