Fifa International · resolved market
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Portugal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bcfcecb78e94e2ea0d5e2a65c2e7cda249a41168c981dd84457f7675b7354a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 4,398$3,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.08 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 19c | 3,988$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 1,975$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.86 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,818$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 118 | 28.8%34 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 1,516$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 79c | 1,191$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.15 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 21c | 1,048$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 18c | 999.82$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…c776backed Yes | 18c | 902.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…8db2backed Yes | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 638.8$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 12c | 514.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…900bbacked Yes | 10c | 505.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 22c | 504.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…5030backed Yes | 19c | 492.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 6c | 487$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed Yes | 24c | 405$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…64bfbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 396$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 21c | 360$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…303ebacked No | 80c | 346$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 22c | 343.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…7405backed Yes | 20c | 325$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 23c | 319.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…6cc6backed Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 18c | 278.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 15c | 259.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked Yes | 20c | 248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c850backed No | 77c | 236.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…d88ebacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Yes | 18c | 218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 217.5$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8ba9backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 202.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 21c | 196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 20c | 192.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 25c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…1805backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…2f34backed No | 80c | 138$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 19c | 133.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 79c | 126.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…0088backed Yes | 13c | 113.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 26.8%37 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…72e3backed Yes | 31c | 111.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee1…25f8backed Yes | 22c | 106.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 105.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed No | 80c | 97.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed No | 80c | 87.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…edc7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 69.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 79c | 59.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…b55dbacked Yes | 29c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Yes | 19c | 53.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…f59abacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republic of Ireland vs. Portugal end in a draw?this page
- Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?No won
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.