Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3e88003b261d5bdd8a4844cca877ea38b4ae5089e983033e5e031e400e08d9

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $715,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $264,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $715,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	47,211$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.21	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	23,899$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	12,628$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes	0c	12,265$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	47	0%0 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	0c	11,967$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	11,537$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.85	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	11,288$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5084…fb85backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	9,611$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	8,346$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.1	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	7,505$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes	0c	7,433$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-88.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,030$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	6,900$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	6,545$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes	1c	6,352$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	73	1.4%1 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,399$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	2c	4,055$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	3,849$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,267$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,217$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	3,150$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,107$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	3,029$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,901$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.03	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,894$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.92	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes	2c	2,879$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.28	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	2,698$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.93	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	2,666$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed Yes	1c	2,635$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,500$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	1c	2,314$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,254$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	1,987$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.78	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	1,942$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	1,803$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.66	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	1,676$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	3c	1,484$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.15	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	1c	1,441$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,350$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	1,330$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	1c	1,255$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	1,230$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.12	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	2c	1,121$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	924.79$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	2c	845.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	2c	680$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	3c	679.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event