Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4067a6f85b882633b6743a39bba7b6076c1e25a4ceb3f1c59967cb660a529e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $503,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,596 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	48,564$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes	0c	24,408$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	73	1.4%1 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	20,090$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	8,904$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.54	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	8,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	7,927$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	1c	5,176$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.95	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,751$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes	1c	4,617$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	93	17.2%16 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	4,200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,021$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,873$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,742$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	1c	3,660$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.84	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	3,630$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.19	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,494$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	3,298$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	3,231$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,954$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	2,893$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa5…e581backed Yes	1c	2,776$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	68	16.2%11 W · 57 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	1c	2,723$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes	1c	2,707$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,486$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Yes	0c	2,482$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,258$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.52	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed Yes	1c	2,111$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	1,877$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,802$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	1c	1,737$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,622$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	1,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	1,304$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	3c	1,249$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa515…fd70backed Yes	1c	804.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	605.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event