TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$604,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,228 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c65,036$65 inLost-$65.04780%0 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes0c28,105$28 inLost-$28.1731.4%1 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-91.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c19,057$19 inLost-$19.061290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da2…ab27backed Yes0c18,665$19 inLost-$18.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c18,378$18 inLost-$18.38470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes0c18,002$18 inLost-$18277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c16,297$16 inLost-$16.3540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c13,579$20 inLost-$19.571,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f5…453fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c9,595$50 inLost-$49.535909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c4,351$12 inLost-$11.571873.2%6 W · 181 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid+278.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c4,343$24 inLost-$23.535628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes0c4,341$14 inLost-$13.7525012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes0c4,020$14 inLost-$14.4188210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes0c3,833$11 inLost-$10.631515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c2,977$12 inLost-$11.913281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes0c2,474$12 inLost-$12.1278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes2c1,913$30 inLost-$29.772777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes2c1,500$37 inLost-$3750913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c965.92$12 inLost-$11.851,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.