TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7312…a168backed Yes0c23,541$24 inLost-$23.54731.4%1 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-91.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c22,745$53 inLost-$53.025535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c18,367$67 inLost-$67.111,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc48c…bb4ebacked Yes0c16,202$16 inLost-$16.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c11,003$68 inLost-$67.951,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df5…1267backed Yes0c7,085$12 inLost-$11.591421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+203.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,558$40 inLost-$40.193281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes0c5,401$11 inLost-$10.83644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,288$22 inLost-$22.341,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes1c4,167$30 inLost-$29.762777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c3,934$29 inLost-$29.32,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,262$22 inLost-$21.641,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes2c2,896$54 inLost-$54.1463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c2,657$25 inLost-$24.93407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes2c2,081$45 inLost-$45.111656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa5…e581backed Yes1c2,078$25 inLost-$24.946816.2%11 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c1,819$11 inLost-$11.2878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes1c1,809$12 inLost-$12.2436113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c1,574$21 inLost-$20.745598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c1,408$13 inLost-$13.211,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1a…837ebacked Yes1c1,363$13 inLost-$13.141010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018f…027dbacked Yes2c891.81$18 inLost-$18.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes2c630.81$13 inLost-$12.531478.8%13 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.