TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$495,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,720 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c29,583$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.311,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes0c23,541$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54731.4%1 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-91.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes0c18,639$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.391,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c16,199$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.081,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes0c11,790$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5936113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c8,176$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.55407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes0c6,950$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.825617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes1c6,688$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.123644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c5,836$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.291,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes1c5,746$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5884616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes1c5,720$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0626619.5%52 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes2c5,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c4,887$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.935718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c4,877$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.92,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes2c4,842$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes0c4,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes3c4,243$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.51656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,962$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.861,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes4c3,934$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1217631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c3,888$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes1c3,650$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1629113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes1c3,590$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.181515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes1c3,416$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.382116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes1c3,040$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.284513.3%6 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes2c2,874$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.663423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes2c2,728$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3738828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c2,640$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.155598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes3c2,595$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.341478.8%13 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df5…1267backed Yes1c2,590$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.751421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+203.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes2c2,575$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.622338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c2,409$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes2c2,078$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.632777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes2c2,070$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3616023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes1c1,969$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.311148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes1c1,956$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0213315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes2c1,919$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0812213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes3c1,900$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5138010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes1c1,714$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes1c1,684$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58837.2%6 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c1,667$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.695535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,579$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.233281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c1,566$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.957828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes2c1,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes2c1,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes2c1,409$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.775909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc4…9d29backed Yes3c1,337$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.171030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes1c1,313$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b9…2f03backed Yes1c1,273$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes3c1,180$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2230110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1471…e9a4backed Yes2c1,071$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.145324.5%13 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes2c1,042$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04444.5%2 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c1,004$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.741,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018f…027dbacked Yes4c992.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c976.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes3c912.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6926411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c904.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c828.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1288610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes2c811.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2450913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes2c772.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.05688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c739.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.573986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes2c690.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c687.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1882714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes3c641.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2542110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2686…1e41backed Yes2c620.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-58.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes3c556.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.351428.5%12 W · 130 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1a…837ebacked Yes2c551.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.141010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa5…e581backed Yes4c541.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.486816.2%11 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes3c471.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5423314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373c…977fbacked Yes2c470.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes2c460.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6829610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes4c408.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3616013.8%22 W · 138 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes4c392.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510131.7%32 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes4c366.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes5c348.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.686015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes4c329.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.189412.8%12 W · 82 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.