TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof BC.Game Esports, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked FaZe59c16,283$9,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,732.313,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BC.Game Esports43c11,469$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.453,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed BC.Game Esports40c7,709$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.8870%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed BC.Game Esports49c7,512$3,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,661.2567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed FaZe60c7,102$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,847.099337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked FaZe52c6,000$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,883.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed FaZe53c5,669$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.518052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BC.Game Esports40c5,297$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.3946349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BC.Game Esports43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.9876657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked BC.Game Esports26c4,361$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.1127133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FaZe51c4,060$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.781,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FaZe57c3,949$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.9246949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BC.Game Esports30c3,566$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.1457422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FaZe55c3,189$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.512,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked FaZe63c3,174$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.3813952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc736…7255backed BC.Game Esports57c2,929$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FaZe63c2,783$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.871,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FaZe48c2,543$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.861,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed BC.Game Esports44c2,290$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed BC.Game Esports15c2,269$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6211547%54 W · 61 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FaZe56c2,106$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.672453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FaZe50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked FaZe43c1,828$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.775641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked BC.Game Esports37c1,697$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.898758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BC.Game Esports15c1,656$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.592,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed BC.Game Esports44c1,464$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.2911940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked FaZe58c1,370$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.724944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FaZe68c1,277$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.9321042.9%90 W · 120 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked FaZe57c1,229$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.759349.5%46 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe913…d360backed BC.Game Esports42c1,163$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.622035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked FaZe56c1,150$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50623952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FaZe69c1,059$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5339468%268 W · 126 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FaZe58c1,046$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9930340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed FaZe56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44010335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb8…85b9backed BC.Game Esports38c991.27$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.426640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FaZe79c944.15$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0447347.1%223 W · 250 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed BC.Game Esports45c913.76$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1912941.1%53 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed BC.Game Esports58c862.88$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed FaZe60c834.17$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.178944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked BC.Game Esports36c823.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009353.8%50 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x888a…ef47backed BC.Game Esports52c766.76$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8155…5377backed BC.Game Esports26c717.78$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.24168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed BC.Game Esports42c717.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9919732.5%64 W · 133 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FaZe56c695.06$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8322554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked BC.Game Esports38c680$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5847738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed BC.Game Esports25c671.52$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8855343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed FaZe62c646.61$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1213937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4de4…cd16backed BC.Game Esports35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed BC.Game Esports41c599.97$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9976546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e14…8d33backed BC.Game Esports37c599.94$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.42040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FaZe74c577.73$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.217,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked BC.Game Esports55c550$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30065950.4%332 W · 327 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked BC.Game Esports43c522.27$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.64146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed BC.Game Esports52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26058961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BC.Game Esports45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22597240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1e…f6a4backed FaZe58c499.38$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.382937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbe…9fb7backed FaZe51c492.25$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5915153%80 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed BC.Game Esports52c479.07$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24715162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BC.Game Esports46c452$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.181,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944f…d441backed BC.Game Esports45c439.99$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.28148.1%39 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed BC.Game Esports44c420.72$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7747741.7%199 W · 278 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed BC.Game Esports41c419.75$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17311638.8%45 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked FaZe58c405.67$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed BC.Game Esports36c404$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4422564.9%146 W · 79 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked BC.Game Esports50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1be…a7f6backed BC.Game Esports17c383.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.912334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x185a…5104backed BC.Game Esports10c377.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.97115.5%11 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BC.Game Esports32c337$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.032,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked BC.Game Esports46c331.37$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4333457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed FaZe61c315.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.669863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46b2…14f3backed FaZe49c311.88$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked FaZe76c310$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756443.8%28 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed BC.Game Esports36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10822843.9%100 W · 128 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BC.Game Esports44c280$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.244,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked BC.Game Esports42c272.38$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6926836.6%98 W · 170 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed BC.Game Esports56c265.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506755.2%37 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed BC.Game Esports42c254.79$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.013630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed BC.Game Esports42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.511,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed BC.Game Esports41c249.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4860848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked FaZe57c245.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6153859.3%319 W · 219 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed BC.Game Esports58c241.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14026251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e33…a3a2backed BC.Game Esports42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed BC.Game Esports45c236.88$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.612648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed BC.Game Esports41c214.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8415142.4%64 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed FaZe48c207.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.032147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…54d2backed BC.Game Esports37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748551.8%44 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked FaZe49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10231933.5%107 W · 212 L-0.8wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9c…ae8ebacked BC.Game Esports29c194.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BC.Game Esports38c185.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.734,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed BC.Game Esports17c183.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.562938.3%241 W · 388 L-17.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038f…1402backed BC.Game Esports57c182.91$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.26944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe974…bb41backed FaZe56c178.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed FaZe56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.577560%45 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed BC.Game Esports50c176$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883253.1%17 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked BC.Game Esports30c171.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1752834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed FaZe66c169.33$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.886144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked BC.Game Esports41c168.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6926046.2%120 W · 140 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BC.Game Esports12c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed FaZe53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.219247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed BC.Game Esports42c148.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7617745.8%81 W · 96 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.