Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521c8ade9d59c45f946774716cf55aab0b6b95ef0766387f8ff21effb7f9b592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67f3…3f61backed Yes | 35c | 3,500$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,813$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.85 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,483$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 1,399$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.56 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6999backed Yes | 42c | 1,121$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,065$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 1,054$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.05 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 940.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 69c | 750.02$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.31 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 78c | 747.51$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.87 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…7786backed No | 70c | 673.96$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 33c | 639.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 67c | 611.07$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 67c | 528$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 40c | 501.57$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed No | 75c | 397.68$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked No | 55c | 366.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked No | 58c | 346.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…c6c1backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7920…7e75backed Yes | 29c | 255.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 53c | 225.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 219.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 45c | 212.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ea…8ad6backed Yes | 51c | 194.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed No | 70c | 187.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 58c | 167.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed No | 55c | 152.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 40c | 142.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…dd95backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 22c | 139.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…b93cbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…18dbbacked Yes | 34c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…28adbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 62c | 84.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 75c | 84.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 66c | 82.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…a8acbacked Yes | 26c | 82.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed No | 62c | 80.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ff…4febbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 70c | 78.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 59c | 78.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…af09backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 63c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed No | 56c | 71.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa265…a9dfbacked No | 58c | 69.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 53c | 68.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 68.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 55c | 62.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 41c | 57.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a43…5ae2backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 30c | 45.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…91c9backed Yes | 24c | 43.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…7572backed Yes | 36c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed6…8708backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 42c | 38.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 59c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…e609backed No | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…9491backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…c5c6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6587backed No | 58c | 24.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…37aebacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…1d1dbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 80c | 19.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…41f9backed No | 75c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.