Tennis · resolved market
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Marrero
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53014063deec6a058eb92dff43bc4ea61430111dac9c52b8759c4fa877ed644b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mathys Erhardof Mathys Erhard, Ivan Marrero
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Ivan Marrero | 3c | 10,727$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 713 | 29.7%212 W · 501 L | -39.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ivan Marrero | 0c | 9,797$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,821 | 39.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L | -82.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Ivan Marrero | 38c | 6,460$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mathys Erhard | 79c | 3,194$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.98 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 3,175$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Mathys Erhard | 62c | 3,071$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.16 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mathys Erhard | 64c | 1,998$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.78 | 3,187 | 48.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L | -46.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ivan Marrero | 4c | 1,532$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mathys Erhard | 75c | 1,522$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.97 | 4,466 | 67.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L | +299.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ivan Marrero | 7c | 1,334$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 1,280$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.49 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 1,240$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.7 | 2,394 | 38.4%920 W · 1,474 L | +87.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…2f02backed Ivan Marrero | 34c | 1,227$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.9 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ivan Marrero | 6c | 988.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Ivan Marrero | 37c | 968.97$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.52 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Ivan Marrero | 3c | 704.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 699.14$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.68 | 669 | 38.9%260 W · 409 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…6b5bbacked Mathys Erhard | 64c | 555$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Ivan Marrero | 5c | 538.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Ivan Marrero | 3c | 538.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 478.62$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.09 | 1,638 | 48.2%789 W · 849 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Ivan Marrero | 38c | 394$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 440 | 42.3%186 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Ivan Marrero | 7c | 363.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 103 | 10.7%11 W · 92 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Mathys Erhard | 80c | 310.55$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Ivan Marrero | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Ivan Marrero | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,647 | 49.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L | +159.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Ivan Marrero | 35c | 283.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 587 | 57.8%339 W · 248 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Mathys Erhard | 72c | 264.87$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 2,025 | 46.9%950 W · 1,075 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2799backed Ivan Marrero | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Mathys Erhard | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…30bcbacked Ivan Marrero | 35c | 215.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Ivan Marrero | 36c | 191.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mathys Erhard | 69c | 164.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Ivan Marrero | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 45.2%98 W · 119 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Ivan Marrero | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Ivan Marrero | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 154.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Ivan Marrero | 8c | 149.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Mathys Erhard | 63c | 148$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 288 | 48.3%139 W · 149 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 140.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b1…6322backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 132.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Mathys Erhard | 79c | 117.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Ivan Marrero | 37c | 117$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Ivan Marrero | 37c | 117$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1,802 | 58.9%1,062 W · 740 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Ivan Marrero | 36c | 101.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 918 | 45.4%417 W · 501 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ivan Marrero | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,895 | 48.1%911 W · 984 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 99.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 96.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Ivan Marrero | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…555abacked Mathys Erhard | 64c | 87.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 81 | 77.8%63 W · 18 L | +11.4wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 40.9%70 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mathys Erhard | 63c | 80.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Mathys Erhard | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 943 | 47.7%450 W · 493 L | +35.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Ivan Marrero | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 503 | 36%181 W · 322 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 60.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Mathys Erhard | 79c | 58.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Ivan Marrero | 35c | 55.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 54.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,545 | 51.5%795 W · 750 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Ivan Marrero | 35c | 50.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,235 | 44.9%554 W · 681 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Mathys Erhard | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Ivan Marrero | 37c | 46.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…343fbacked Mathys Erhard | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 255 | 57.3%146 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 803 | 55.4%445 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Ivan Marrero | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 509 | 48.1%245 W · 264 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Ivan Marrero | 36c | 35.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Ivan Marrero | 38c | 31.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 481 | 51.6%248 W · 233 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Mathys Erhard | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Mathys Erhard | 62c | 29.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,418 | 55%780 W · 638 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 26.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3,621 | 45.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Ivan Marrero | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…d4c0backed Mathys Erhard | 63c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 141 | 70.9%100 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Mathys Erhard | 78c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 663 | 47.1%312 W · 351 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Mathys Erhard | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 267 | 64.8%173 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Mathys Erhard | 71c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,079 | 44.4%923 W · 1,156 L | -52.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.