Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5309906482b01d9e5299cea2c53bea58e7303a13acf571cf2fa3504a2ecd2068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 35c | 972.86$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.77 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 22c | 730.22$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b32backed Yes | 5c | 389.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 31c | 281.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 47c | 252.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 248.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 223.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…756abacked No | 77c | 210$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 209.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 64c | 208.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbee…824ebacked Yes | 60c | 186.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed No | 64c | 180.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 148.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 27c | 131.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 58c | 129.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 65c | 124.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 63c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 29c | 103.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 100.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 95.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 27c | 92.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 91.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 83.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed No | 68c | 82.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 79c | 81.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 80c | 78.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed No | 69c | 72.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 70.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 65.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed No | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 44.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked Yes | 47c | 44.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 40.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 54c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 64cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…516bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…3854backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 33.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…12a9backed No | 70c | 32.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 44c | 31.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?this page
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?Yes won
- Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.