Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531f8bd1bf1017faac747796bfc94f043e13da4267305b95695351f01b5286b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 61c | 1,700$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.08 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 1,108$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,065$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 631.02$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 614.11$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 602.5$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 593.51$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 44c | 502.95$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 44c | 451$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 412.3$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 51c | 371.68$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 294.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 276.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 268$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 14c | 249.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed No | 46c | 234.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 207.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 203.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5c70backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 183.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 38c | 182.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 182.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 59c | 152.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 150.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 68c | 139.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 133.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 122.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 43c | 107.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 99.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 97.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 96.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 48c | 96.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 92.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 42c | 90.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 46c | 87.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 86.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 86.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 83.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 72.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 62.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 25c | 59.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 42c | 59.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 55c | 58.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 57.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 70c | 56.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 55.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 54.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 51.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 47c | 51.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 43.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 45c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 55c | 41.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 41.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 67c | 37.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 36.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 29.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…f085backed Yes | 80c | 28.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 53c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.