Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562d7f8059b364d2178fb92ec2af51e6f4e6148ec1655c52fcf023c8b9f2b896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 51c | 643.89$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.69 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 412.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 392$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 379.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 359$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 4c | 298.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 278.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 259.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 161.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 158.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 11c | 141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 137.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 119.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f72…22c7backed No | 23c | 117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 17c | 115.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed No | 16c | 101.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 65c | 90.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 73.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 77c | 67.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 55c | 54.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 24c | 51.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 60c | 45.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 44c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 60c | 42.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 67c | 33.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…db35backed Yes | 55c | 31.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes | 65c | 31.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 63c | 29.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?this page
- Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?No won
- Will Justin Kirk be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?No won
- Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?No won
- Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.